{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44ef6ac6-eff6-43fc-9e59-6de1a1226d82", "symbol": "SLVU", "name": "BetaPro Silver 2x Daily Bull ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.661, "architecture_energy": 61.017, "architecture_maturity": 57.751, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.97, "rotation_up": 26.7, "upward_expansion": 10.96, "deceleration": 52.82, "rotation_down": 58.21, "downward_expansion": 86.62 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.281333, 15.756909, 19.178349, 22.148581 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 17.18, "trend_reference": 27.823889, "distance_from_trend": -0.382545, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.242585, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.206242, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -39.513058, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.451469, "excess_performance": -0.57189, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.382545, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.130766, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.206242, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.07191, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.395131, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.577275, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.451469, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.223917, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1073600, "relative_activity": 0.774486, "balance": 0.223917, "dry_up": 0.915554, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.198994, "annualized_volatility": 1.004496, "from_high_reference": -0.827913, "from_low_reference": 0.486159 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.823889, "fair_value_reference": 14.242585, "structural_low": 12.92, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.001555, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.011777, "regime_survival": 0.772727, "best_return": 0.23278, "worst_return": -0.414087, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.000973, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.0547, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.370022, "worst_return": -0.204333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.122816, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.179407, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.568475, "worst_return": -0.393417, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 1670235.0, "trend": 31.023778, "fair_value": 14.044359, "relative_strength": -44.189029, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.142222, "energy": 86.456855, "activity_lines": [ 16.521333, 19.058121, 22.508063, 26.027857 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.56, "volume": 1578800, "typical_volume": 1628680.0, "trend": 30.348556, "fair_value": 14.081944, "relative_strength": -50.781241, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.527736, "energy": 88.253404, "activity_lines": [ 15.276, 17.602, 21.370889, 24.901161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.5, "volume": 1279800, "typical_volume": 1524490.0, "trend": 29.548667, "fair_value": 14.126966, "relative_strength": -47.477514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.091797, "energy": 80.090248, "activity_lines": [ 14.8, 16.619879, 20.469127, 23.878674 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.32, "volume": 1144400, "typical_volume": 1488980.0, "trend": 28.767778, "fair_value": 14.173782, "relative_strength": -47.89603, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.537694, "energy": 74.823022, "activity_lines": [ 14.536667, 15.822909, 19.646746, 22.896179 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.18, "volume": 1073600, "typical_volume": 1386210.0, "trend": 27.823889, "fair_value": 14.242585, "relative_strength": -39.513058, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.66116, "energy": 61.017228, "activity_lines": [ 15.281333, 15.756909, 19.178349, 22.148581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }