{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44efc045-76cd-4d6a-9131-7743d1f49c19", "symbol": "1468", "name": "Chang-Ho Fibre Corporation", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 74.438, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 63.23, "architecture_energy": 68.489, "architecture_maturity": 9.041, "architecture_confidence": 60.402, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.55, "rotation_up": 74.05, "upward_expansion": 90.54, "deceleration": 42.91, "rotation_down": 9.51, "downward_expansion": 14.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.51, 13.129091, 12.699048, 12.570645 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.3, "trend_reference": 12.511667, "distance_from_trend": 0.063008, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.461218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.011976, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.34652, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.047244, "excess_performance": -0.394128, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.063008, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.030049, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.011976, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102886, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.243465, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133919, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.047244, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.673939, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 215032, "relative_activity": 0.866497, "balance": 0.673939, "dry_up": 1.161905, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058704, "annualized_volatility": 0.274536, "from_high_reference": -0.110368, "from_low_reference": 0.192825 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.511667, "fair_value_reference": 13.461218, "structural_low": 11.3, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.0151, "positive_rate": 0.357143, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": -0.026407, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.109091, "worst_return": -0.11859, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.015559, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.04949, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.10566, "worst_return": -0.190184, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.08793, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.082103, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.089147, "worst_return": -0.166078, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010381, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045936, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.00722, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.069853, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.012346, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, 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"typical_volume": 243945.4, "trend": 12.213333, "fair_value": 13.519231, "relative_strength": -37.692511, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "down", "direction": -42.449278, "energy": 22.462044, "activity_lines": [ 12.033333, 12.044545, 12.099048, 12.18957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 12.2, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 237295.4, "trend": 12.225, "fair_value": 13.492949, "relative_strength": -34.881094, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.107715, "energy": 13.081675, "activity_lines": [ 12.096667, 12.067273, 12.095476, 12.18871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.6, "volume": 285000, "typical_volume": 239745.35, "trend": 12.278333, "fair_value": 13.480769, "relative_strength": -21.730645, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 40.83523, "energy": 46.073143, "activity_lines": [ 12.616667, 12.341818, 12.229048, 12.277419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.1, "volume": 396117, "typical_volume": 248750.2, "trend": 12.321667, "fair_value": 13.465064, "relative_strength": -25.1913, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 37.866038, "energy": 50.76817, "activity_lines": [ 12.856667, 12.504545, 12.314524, 12.33043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.05, "volume": 280101, "typical_volume": 250155.25, "trend": 12.396667, "fair_value": 13.464423, "relative_strength": -17.606244, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.754341, "energy": 79.008086, "activity_lines": [ 13.34, 12.821818, 12.490714, 12.441935 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.55, "volume": 262115, "typical_volume": 250361.0, "trend": 12.458333, "fair_value": 13.461859, "relative_strength": -21.355743, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.297838, "energy": 76.389658, "activity_lines": [ 13.51, 13.011818, 12.610476, 12.516344 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 13.3, "volume": 215032, "typical_volume": 248162.55, "trend": 12.511667, "fair_value": 13.461218, "relative_strength": -24.34652, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.230298, "energy": 68.488651, "activity_lines": [ 13.51, 13.129091, 12.699048, 12.570645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }