{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44f2c6b1-3fe3-4a2e-aafb-a3742205b427", "symbol": "SAGCEM", "name": "Sagar Cements Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.131, "architecture_energy": 25.922, "architecture_maturity": 11.732, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.01, "rotation_up": 20.55, "upward_expansion": 4.22, "deceleration": 45.64, "rotation_down": 46.2, "downward_expansion": 72.89 }, "activity_lines": [ 175.663331, 176.51509, 177.641999, 178.498042 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 173.009995, "trend_reference": 181.474666, "distance_from_trend": -0.046644, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 221.334959, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.218334, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.290687, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.106769, "excess_performance": -0.063059, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.046644, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064846, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.218334, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062694, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142907, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038376, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.106769, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.366713, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 110084, "relative_activity": 0.357527, "balance": 0.366713, "dry_up": 0.757326, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057573, "annualized_volatility": 0.266411, "from_high_reference": -0.422144, "from_low_reference": 0.163484 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 181.474666, "fair_value_reference": 221.334959, "structural_low": 148.699997, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.034883, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.024076, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.113135, "worst_return": -0.166337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.074538, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.057815, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.243022, "worst_return": -0.254769, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.042883, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.097733, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.338547, "worst_return": 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"active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.041088, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.076106, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.017223, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.219735, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181219, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": 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179.622665, 177.937636, 178.364428, 180.234795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 177.539993, "volume": 241454, "typical_volume": 342264.1, "trend": 183.932999, "fair_value": 222.215075, "relative_strength": -10.110289, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -28.435607, "energy": 14.448127, "activity_lines": [ 179.351996, 177.870362, 178.350761, 179.751139 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 173.960007, "volume": 363019, "typical_volume": 334742.75, "trend": 182.46, "fair_value": 221.81418, "relative_strength": -13.614615, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.748936, "energy": 15.360147, "activity_lines": [ 177.520666, 177.212727, 178.036428, 179.10772 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 173.009995, "volume": 110084, "typical_volume": 307903.75, "trend": 181.474666, "fair_value": 221.334959, "relative_strength": -14.290687, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.131486, "energy": 25.922251, "activity_lines": [ 175.663331, 176.51509, 177.641999, 178.498042 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }