{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44f629f3-be37-441d-a2d2-0dcbdfa18702", "symbol": "AOPT", "name": "21Shares Optimism ETP", "exchange": "AMS", "country": "NL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -75.353, "architecture_energy": 70.701, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.108, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.65, "rotation_up": 21.63, "upward_expansion": 12.4, "deceleration": 48.38, "rotation_down": 71.27, "downward_expansion": 90.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.0009, 1.046076, 1.147415, 1.230628 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 0.978, "trend_reference": 1.490633, "distance_from_trend": -0.343903, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.827266, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.92927, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -72.663523, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.604113, "excess_performance": -0.720775, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.343903, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.334058, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.92927, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023176, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.726635, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010296, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.604113, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.856327, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 2.856327, "dry_up": 0.489467, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.092017, "annualized_volatility": 0.778186, "from_high_reference": -0.890236, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.490633, "fair_value_reference": 13.827266, "structural_low": 0.978, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.072606, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.082101, "regime_survival": 0.923077, "best_return": 0.163689, "worst_return": -0.469398, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.196824, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.258609, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.006179, "worst_return": -0.616818, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.62034, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.704883, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.567966, "worst_return": -0.672713, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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75.681428, "activity_lines": [ 1.23134, 1.300138, 1.326616, 1.612208 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 1.1585, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2842.9, "trend": 1.97694, "fair_value": 14.499543, "relative_strength": -74.047994, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.526514, "energy": 68.830314, "activity_lines": [ 1.179227, 1.27122, 1.297432, 1.554811 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1.1585, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2744.95, "trend": 1.903607, "fair_value": 14.399983, "relative_strength": -72.965852, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.275293, "energy": 67.043303, "activity_lines": [ 1.15134, 1.242778, 1.275992, 1.502009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.1006, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 2517.6, "trend": 1.841093, "fair_value": 14.301469, "relative_strength": -74.143397, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.169522, "energy": 69.39385, "activity_lines": [ 1.12838, 1.20828, 1.255284, 1.450202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.0925, "volume": 331, "typical_volume": 2524.4, "trend": 1.772403, "fair_value": 14.204344, "relative_strength": -73.450904, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.41647, "energy": 67.557658, "activity_lines": [ 1.112627, 1.175862, 1.23741, 1.401906 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.0925, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1283.5, "trend": 1.70459, "fair_value": 14.108637, "relative_strength": -72.624162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.853046, "energy": 67.330344, "activity_lines": [ 1.10732, 1.147144, 1.22129, 1.358041 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.978, "volume": 2500, "typical_volume": 1291.9, "trend": 1.63296, "fair_value": 14.013488, "relative_strength": -74.417852, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.244863, "energy": 72.790279, "activity_lines": [ 1.059813, 1.103565, 1.195123, 1.311164 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.978, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1276.9, "trend": 1.57135, "fair_value": 13.919707, "relative_strength": -73.621193, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.534964, "energy": 70.514784, "activity_lines": [ 1.02434, 1.069876, 1.17054, 1.268909 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.978, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1276.9, "trend": 1.490633, "fair_value": 13.827266, "relative_strength": -72.663523, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.352993, "energy": 70.701387, "activity_lines": [ 1.0009, 1.046076, 1.147415, 1.230628 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }