{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44fa1db6-99c8-47ee-aacc-f9437591b648", "symbol": "6618", "name": "UHT Unitech Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.985, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.562, "architecture_energy": 19.006, "architecture_maturity": 13.061, "architecture_confidence": 92.908, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.57, "rotation_up": 20.73, "upward_expansion": 5.42, "deceleration": 45.21, "rotation_down": 45.3, "downward_expansion": 71.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.376666, 19.640909, 19.704762, 19.709785 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.049999, "trend_reference": 19.77, "distance_from_trend": 0.014163, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.710468, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.017226, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -32.437567, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.028205, "excess_performance": -0.413167, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014163, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062441, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.017226, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042554, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.324376, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029114, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.028205, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.001021, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2711585, "relative_activity": 0.575338, "balance": 1.001021, "dry_up": 0.38207, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.120276, "annualized_volatility": 0.60507, "from_high_reference": -0.427143, "from_low_reference": 0.542308 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.77, "fair_value_reference": 19.710468, "structural_low": 17.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.015555, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.008702, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.40625, "worst_return": -0.17207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.000473, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.046553, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.495727, "worst_return": -0.224227, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.103214, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.061825, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.615385, "worst_return": -0.264059, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.007704, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.145804, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.619207, "worst_return": -0.201592, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035912, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.188264, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.04142, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.146789, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.223048, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071584, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.145418, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111607, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046154, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.027322, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.204167, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.105392, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.127072, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0025, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 18.0, "volume": 2818328, "typical_volume": 3236561.1, "trend": 16.929391, "fair_value": 14.676026, "relative_strength": 11.027102, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": 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"Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.815838, "energy": 11.314808, "activity_lines": [ 20.26, 19.790909, 19.86, 19.860107 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.0, "volume": 1311863, "typical_volume": 4957973.25, "trend": 19.946667, "fair_value": 19.694763, "relative_strength": -32.707558, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -33.783231, "energy": 12.508519, "activity_lines": [ 19.83, 19.688182, 19.78619, 19.790107 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.5, "volume": 803605, "typical_volume": 4741679.5, "trend": 19.848333, "fair_value": 19.697968, "relative_strength": -35.738923, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.799968, "energy": 24.306433, "activity_lines": [ 19.2, 19.52, 19.671429, 19.696774 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 20.049999, "volume": 2711585, "typical_volume": 4713029.2, "trend": 19.77, "fair_value": 19.710468, "relative_strength": -32.437567, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.562296, "energy": 19.005686, "activity_lines": [ 19.376666, 19.640909, 19.704762, 19.709785 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }