{ "ticker": { "uuid": "44fb0131-62c2-4556-8ec2-1fe10b96905c", "symbol": "600039", "name": "Sichuan Road & Bridge Group Co.,Ltd", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.398, "architecture_energy": 22.274, "architecture_maturity": 84.443, "architecture_confidence": 67.171, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.6, "rotation_up": 39.54, "upward_expansion": 22.85, "deceleration": 41.12, "rotation_down": 21.02, "downward_expansion": 54.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.560244, 8.361347, 8.398279, 8.677275 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.34, "trend_reference": 9.074382, "distance_from_trend": -0.080929, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.828572, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.065328, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -7.213033, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.141092, "excess_performance": -0.097888, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.080929, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048508, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.065328, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034385, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.07213, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.123647, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.141092, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.707697, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 97782043, "relative_activity": 0.917793, "balance": 1.707697, "dry_up": 0.974913, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064901, "annualized_volatility": 0.422907, "from_high_reference": -0.216901, "from_low_reference": 0.106495 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.074382, "fair_value_reference": 7.828572, "structural_low": 7.537311, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.002472, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.026438, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.16112, "worst_return": -0.10842, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.003953, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.028908, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.266845, "worst_return": -0.124568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.112816, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.018428, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.141999, "worst_return": -0.128028, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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49.518696, "activity_lines": [ 7.994745, 8.090335, 8.405871, 8.76122 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.81, "volume": 154619940, "typical_volume": 107760002.6, "trend": 9.158715, "fair_value": 7.828748, "relative_strength": 1.064203, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -35.870643, "energy": 24.28597, "activity_lines": [ 8.267982, 8.211763, 8.404197, 8.736421 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.03, "volume": 88766890, "typical_volume": 106872904.2, "trend": 9.128048, "fair_value": 7.830104, "relative_strength": 3.116872, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.685034, "energy": 17.856184, "activity_lines": [ 8.578552, 8.357737, 8.431905, 8.728117 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.34, "volume": 97782043, "typical_volume": 106540460.45, "trend": 9.074382, "fair_value": 7.828572, "relative_strength": -7.213033, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.398107, "energy": 22.273838, "activity_lines": [ 8.560244, 8.361347, 8.398279, 8.677275 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }