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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.171, "architecture_energy": 52.441, "architecture_maturity": 49.309, "architecture_confidence": 89.04, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.98, "rotation_up": 18.66, "upward_expansion": 8.03, "deceleration": 44.45, "rotation_down": 59.52, "downward_expansion": 81.37 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.790667, 21.535222, 21.920517, 23.163814 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 18.76, "trend_reference": 24.728517, "distance_from_trend": -0.241362, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 108.447064, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.827012, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -39.60815, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.321764, "excess_performance": -0.509218, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.241362, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084461, "read": "Falling" 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"typical_volume": 1901361.95, "trend": 25.414677, "fair_value": 115.689995, "relative_strength": -28.534, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.852667, "energy": 21.500527, "activity_lines": [ 22.34744, 22.219011, 22.808643, 24.025687 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.4, "volume": 1050114, "typical_volume": 1785631.75, "trend": 25.225677, "fair_value": 113.463389, "relative_strength": -28.915677, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.739147, "energy": 33.796508, "activity_lines": [ 21.997627, 22.133324, 22.537284, 23.766676 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.17, "volume": 1311334, "typical_volume": 1683373.1, "trend": 25.048677, "fair_value": 111.111105, "relative_strength": -25.886882, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.133588, "energy": 33.701202, "activity_lines": [ 21.891813, 22.154909, 22.37621, 23.569535 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.76, "volume": 1659645, "typical_volume": 1654377.95, "trend": 24.728517, "fair_value": 108.447064, "relative_strength": -39.60815, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.170789, "energy": 52.44103, "activity_lines": [ 20.790667, 21.535222, 21.920517, 23.163814 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }