{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45020345-4395-4d4e-bee6-01236ef4a6a8", "symbol": "EBRO", "name": "Ebro Foods, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 84.606, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -1.611, "architecture_energy": 18.644, "architecture_maturity": 8.984, "architecture_confidence": 56.383, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 57.17, "rotation_up": 43.27, "upward_expansion": 35.84, "deceleration": 35.32, "rotation_down": 15.12, "downward_expansion": 41.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.204, 18.094022, 18.001858, 18.104225 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.219999, "trend_reference": 18.232772, "distance_from_trend": -0.000701, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.045839, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.135497, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.718025, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.011368, "excess_performance": -0.135799, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.000701, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000985, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.135497, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011219, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.13718, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031066, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.011368, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.213866, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 103433, "relative_activity": 0.425766, "balance": 3.213866, "dry_up": 2.206661, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.01811, "annualized_volatility": 0.113413, "from_high_reference": -0.060699, "from_low_reference": 0.092156 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.232772, "fair_value_reference": 16.045839, "structural_low": 17.277132, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.004659, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.002715, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.017926, "worst_return": -0.032066, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.028153, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.001735, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.03181, "worst_return": -0.033032, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.020987, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.035678, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.00305, "worst_return": -0.034051, 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0.008915, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.036478, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.06426, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028103, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.009018, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.032805, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", 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17.918425, 17.839379, 17.957352, 18.108317 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.18, "volume": 179206, "typical_volume": 197420.95, "trend": 18.22541, "fair_value": 15.986238, "relative_strength": -10.823144, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.986348, "energy": 19.252926, "activity_lines": [ 18.022204, 17.91063, 17.959677, 18.105233 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.08, "volume": 120688, "typical_volume": 184952.0, "trend": 18.222978, "fair_value": 16.005246, "relative_strength": -12.566537, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -23.698932, "energy": 20.008334, "activity_lines": [ 18.068, 17.955899, 17.956958, 18.095852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.360001, "volume": 1740965, "typical_volume": 251704.8, "trend": 18.227246, "fair_value": 16.026164, "relative_strength": -11.694404, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 5.613632, "energy": 17.352788, "activity_lines": [ 18.174667, 18.043942, 17.985768, 18.104692 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.219999, "volume": 103433, "typical_volume": 242934.05, "trend": 18.232772, "fair_value": 16.045839, "relative_strength": -13.718025, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.610923, "energy": 18.643863, "activity_lines": [ 18.204, 18.094022, 18.001858, 18.104225 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }