{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "4502cded-c37a-4395-a5a4-0f259dc03665",
    "symbol": "CRNA",
    "name": "Circio Holding ASA",
    "exchange": "OSL",
    "country": "NO",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "OSEBX.OL",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2c",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 37.287,
    "architecture_energy": 24.697,
    "architecture_maturity": 42.871,
    "architecture_confidence": 61.565,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 45.74,
        "rotation_up": 45.14,
        "upward_expansion": 64.72,
        "deceleration": 62.44,
        "rotation_down": 18.39,
        "downward_expansion": 10.38
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        8.478667,
        8.245636,
        8.549238,
        8.049114
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 8.77,
    "trend_reference": 6.710533,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.306901,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 3.848803,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 1.27863,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 96.658628,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 7.060662,
    "excess_performance": 6.935668,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.306901,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.534362,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.27863,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.19619,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.966586,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -1.97539,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 7.060662,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.987275,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 25525918,
      "relative_activity": 0.585114,
      "balance": 0.987275,
      "dry_up": 0.493635,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.151741,
      "annualized_volatility": 1.394811,
      "from_high_reference": -0.393499,
      "from_low_reference": 15.032907
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 6.710533,
      "fair_value_reference": 3.848803,
      "structural_low": 0.978,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.563636,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.476656,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 2.063953,
        "worst_return": -0.075449,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 6.836364,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 6.685854,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 6.836364,
        "worst_return": 6.836364,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 1,
        "median_return": 7.409091,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 7.250932,
        "regime_survival": 1.0,
        "best_return": 7.409091,
        "worst_return": 7.409091,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 0,
        "median_return": null,
        "positive_rate": null,
        "directional_follow_through": null,
        "median_excess_return": null,
        "regime_survival": null,
        "best_return": null,
        "worst_return": null,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2021-07-09",
        "end": "2021-07-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.08642,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2021-08-06",
        "end": "2022-08-19",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.773541,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2022-08-26",
        "end": "2022-09-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.11526,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2022-09-23",
        "end": "2022-11-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.06814,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2022-11-18",
        "end": "2023-01-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.074523,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2023-01-20",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.929245,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-05-31",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.630435,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-06-07",
        "end": "2025-04-18",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": -0.747082,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-04-25",
        "end": "2025-10-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.234568,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-10-10",
        "end": "2026-01-16",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": -0.237594,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-01-23",
        "end": "2026-02-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.563636,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-02-27",
        "end": "2026-06-12",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 2.150579,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-06-19",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.050299,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "typical_volume": 49727456.55,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
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        "typical_volume": 46456491.5,
        "trend": 6.4579,
        "fair_value": 3.902201,
        "relative_strength": 91.181536,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
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        "direction": 28.08893,
        "energy": 17.029738,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 8.77,
        "volume": 25525918,
        "typical_volume": 43625531.8,
        "trend": 6.710533,
        "fair_value": 3.848803,
        "relative_strength": 96.658628,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}