{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4503614a-4048-4d4f-b867-0c9f72373636", "symbol": "200726", "name": "Lu Thai Textile Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.201, "architecture_energy": 29.322, "architecture_maturity": 87.802, "architecture_confidence": 80.135, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.21, "rotation_up": 27.85, "upward_expansion": 22.01, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 29.95, "downward_expansion": 60.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.279333, 4.244023, 4.28729, 4.425382 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.34, "trend_reference": 4.617173, "distance_from_trend": -0.060031, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.24833, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.021578, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.358646, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.165385, "excess_performance": -0.172784, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.060031, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.049117, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.021578, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030256, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.113586, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.125073, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.165385, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.512026, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 553879, "relative_activity": 0.870416, "balance": 0.512026, "dry_up": 1.118274, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.032534, "annualized_volatility": 0.152116, "from_high_reference": -0.165385, "from_low_reference": 0.082294 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.617173, "fair_value_reference": 4.24833, "structural_low": 4.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.018098, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": -0.021287, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.201784, "worst_return": -0.057692, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.004761, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.053973, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.276094, "worst_return": -0.05492, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.038259, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.005006, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.292213, "worst_return": -0.059419, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10733, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067395, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.072072, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046266, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.00813, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.951745, "energy": 64.835105, "activity_lines": [ 4.176667, 4.204699, 4.338221, 4.496814 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.18, "volume": 795564, "typical_volume": 649770.85, "trend": 4.657173, "fair_value": 4.245025, "relative_strength": -12.425233, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.731022, "energy": 60.750869, "activity_lines": [ 4.173333, 4.197177, 4.307101, 4.464372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.35, "volume": 684163, "typical_volume": 648114.0, "trend": 4.637173, "fair_value": 4.246624, "relative_strength": -7.025204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.049644, "energy": 43.73549, "activity_lines": [ 4.233333, 4.222516, 4.296171, 4.444555 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.34, "volume": 553879, "typical_volume": 636337.95, "trend": 4.617173, "fair_value": 4.24833, "relative_strength": -11.358646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.200795, "energy": 29.322011, "activity_lines": [ 4.279333, 4.244023, 4.28729, 4.425382 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }