{ "ticker": { "uuid": "450d2140-426b-4504-89e7-7ec0706721a9", "symbol": "PPG", "name": "PPG Industries, Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 65.083, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.68, "architecture_energy": 19.856, "architecture_maturity": 55.75, "architecture_confidence": 78.793, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.88, "rotation_up": 23.56, "upward_expansion": 59.55, "deceleration": 90.98, "rotation_down": 31.4, "downward_expansion": 16.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 100.963334, 102.648364, 100.34768, 98.769425 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 102.400002, "trend_reference": 97.682717, "distance_from_trend": 0.048292, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 104.653466, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.021533, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -10.39594, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.025195, "excess_performance": -0.199441, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.048292, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.062565, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.021533, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.102548, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103959, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038812, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.025195, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 1.038961, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055649, "annualized_volatility": 0.343389, "from_high_reference": -0.073456, "from_low_reference": 0.282244 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 97.682717, "fair_value_reference": 104.653466, "structural_low": 82.848796, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.002926, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.02845, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.175426, "worst_return": -0.101971, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.02573, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.076075, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.235073, "worst_return": -0.048705, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.058503, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.137307, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.041832, "worst_return": -0.158838, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087688, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003781, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.051665, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.001581, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032969, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.118048, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.192878, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.234476, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078706, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 120.097702, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.2, "trend": 116.986413, "fair_value": 116.006523, "relative_strength": 5.753496, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 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97.853764, 97.065905 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 103.199997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 29.95, "trend": 95.842817, "fair_value": 105.178405, "relative_strength": -9.179732, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.480244, "energy": 76.942246, "activity_lines": [ 105.62, 102.641637, 98.522768, 97.575284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 104.099998, "volume": 96, "typical_volume": 34.75, "trend": 96.419558, "fair_value": 105.038077, "relative_strength": -6.149452, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.883152, "energy": 65.102146, "activity_lines": [ 105.233333, 103.455273, 99.286531, 98.108005 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 103.150002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 27.65, "trend": 96.99881, "fair_value": 104.909475, "relative_strength": -7.824207, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.093019, "energy": 45.971827, "activity_lines": [ 104.49, 103.897818, 99.952997, 98.542227 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 95.400002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 27.65, "trend": 97.279635, "fair_value": 104.749009, "relative_strength": -14.322578, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 23.368118, "energy": 15.851967, "activity_lines": [ 101.190001, 102.66491, 99.833184, 98.439078 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 102.400002, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 23.1, "trend": 97.682717, "fair_value": 104.653466, "relative_strength": -10.39594, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.680182, "energy": 19.856217, "activity_lines": [ 100.963334, 102.648364, 100.34768, 98.769425 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }