{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4511b33b-3ff7-4144-a6f1-62552862498d", "symbol": "SPN", "name": "Sparc Technologies Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.529, "architecture_energy": 53.501, "architecture_maturity": 18.255, "architecture_confidence": 80.842, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.88, "rotation_up": 14.59, "upward_expansion": 25.52, "deceleration": 49.85, "rotation_down": 67.22, "downward_expansion": 52.85 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.224, 0.249545, 0.270548, 0.263742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.2, "trend_reference": 0.251, "distance_from_trend": -0.203187, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.212917, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.060665, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.638953, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.047619, "excess_performance": -0.111325, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.203187, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.152257, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.060665, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.481282, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.10639, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.763655, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.047619, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.521634, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1235571, "relative_activity": 0.896915, "balance": 0.521634, "dry_up": 0.467497, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.256731, "annualized_volatility": 1.140681, "from_high_reference": -0.518072, "from_low_reference": 0.481481 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.251, "fair_value_reference": 0.212917, "structural_low": 0.16, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.088235, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.076547, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": -0.022222, "worst_return": -0.153846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.133333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.175921, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.088235, "worst_return": -0.269231, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.266667, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.33714, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.088235, "worst_return": -0.376923, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.266667, 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"2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.138298, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078947, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.088235, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.245902, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025, "active": false }, { 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0.25, "volume": 449771, "typical_volume": 1337269.5, "trend": 0.249667, "fair_value": 0.21375, "relative_strength": 19.126103, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 5.530926, "energy": 12.608153, "activity_lines": [ 0.259667, 0.276182, 0.283167, 0.269237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.215, "volume": 320541, "typical_volume": 1346967.8, "trend": 0.2505, "fair_value": 0.213365, "relative_strength": -0.416449, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.629116, "energy": 34.723447, "activity_lines": [ 0.242, 0.263727, 0.277643, 0.267 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.2, "volume": 1235571, "typical_volume": 1377579.2, "trend": 0.251, "fair_value": 0.212917, "relative_strength": -10.638953, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.529184, "energy": 53.500854, "activity_lines": [ 0.224, 0.249545, 0.270548, 0.263742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }