{ "ticker": { "uuid": "451afbcd-39e0-41f6-816d-ddcebe221c0c", "symbol": "EUZ", "name": "Eckert & Ziegler SE", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.059, "architecture_energy": 66.639, "architecture_maturity": 8.9, "architecture_confidence": 81.645, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.74, "rotation_up": 11.07, "upward_expansion": 16.46, "deceleration": 34.69, "rotation_down": 71.97, "downward_expansion": 87.46 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.771333, 14.304702, 14.650978, 14.693259 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.9, "trend_reference": 14.806939, "distance_from_trend": -0.061251, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.657229, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.051663, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.803972, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.086838, "excess_performance": -0.151478, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.061251, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.013455, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.051663, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.100731, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16804, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042459, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.086838, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.803128, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 414280, "relative_activity": 0.850409, "balance": 0.803128, "dry_up": 1.322555, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070825, "annualized_volatility": 0.330237, "from_high_reference": -0.338065, "from_low_reference": 0.061879 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.806939, "fair_value_reference": 14.657229, "structural_low": 13.09, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": -0.059444, "positive_rate": 0.36, "directional_follow_through": 0.64, "median_excess_return": -0.04041, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 0.388301, "worst_return": -0.212957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.029314, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.005784, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.245604, "worst_return": -0.383324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.114635, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.100591, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.242192, "worst_return": -0.585995, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"close": 13.61, "volume": 523236, "typical_volume": 499606.85, "trend": 14.879919, "fair_value": 14.631398, "relative_strength": -17.028567, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.970469, "energy": 63.092825, "activity_lines": [ 13.910667, 14.484548, 14.729243, 14.756479 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.9, "volume": 414280, "typical_volume": 487153.95, "trend": 14.806939, "fair_value": 14.657229, "relative_strength": -16.803972, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.058929, "energy": 66.639177, "activity_lines": [ 13.771333, 14.304702, 14.650978, 14.693259 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }