{ "ticker": { "uuid": "451c746b-36ae-40fe-9c71-8e91c1d27439", "symbol": "HLIF", "name": "Harvest Canadian Dividend Leaders Income ETF", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.925, "architecture_energy": 75.363, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 82.023, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.81, "rotation_up": 70.96, "upward_expansion": 91.58, "deceleration": 47.99, "rotation_down": 17.68, "downward_expansion": 15.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.850236, 12.746632, 12.541273, 12.325125 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 12.79, "trend_reference": 12.010274, "distance_from_trend": 0.064922, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 9.133741, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.400303, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.104187, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.144321, "excess_performance": 0.023899, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.064922, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.058199, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.400303, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009346, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.011042, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.01853, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.144321, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.585225, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72600, "relative_activity": 1.356502, "balance": 1.585225, "dry_up": 0.920217, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014504, "annualized_volatility": 0.079875, "from_high_reference": -0.016154, "from_low_reference": 0.361412 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.010274, "fair_value_reference": 9.133741, "structural_low": 11.196478, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.022592, "positive_rate": 0.827586, "directional_follow_through": 0.827586, "median_excess_return": -0.003775, "regime_survival": 0.896552, "best_return": 0.067174, "worst_return": -0.040556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.07058, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.020136, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.092847, "worst_return": 0.004552, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.118941, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.020646, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.151689, "worst_return": 0.064257, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.28155, "energy": 74.661916, "activity_lines": [ 12.66865, 12.57121, 12.349636, 12.132777 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.880376, "volume": 52800, "typical_volume": 52000.0, "trend": 11.876666, "fair_value": 9.06165, "relative_strength": 4.912159, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.443037, "energy": 78.049892, "activity_lines": [ 12.758354, 12.644183, 12.420965, 12.20208 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.94, "volume": 50000, "typical_volume": 52805.0, "trend": 11.946132, "fair_value": 9.098254, "relative_strength": 5.720796, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.224612, "energy": 84.281645, "activity_lines": [ 12.845878, 12.714045, 12.491578, 12.270682 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.79, "volume": 72600, "typical_volume": 53520.0, "trend": 12.010274, "fair_value": 9.133741, "relative_strength": 1.104187, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.925127, "energy": 75.362526, "activity_lines": [ 12.850236, 12.746632, 12.541273, 12.325125 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }