{ "ticker": { "uuid": "451ca445-c34d-4576-9f60-f3db973ab0ef", "symbol": "MCN", "name": "LVMH Mo\u00ebt Hennessy - Louis Vuitton, Soci\u00e9t\u00e9 Europ\u00e9enne", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.854, "architecture_energy": 49.253, "architecture_maturity": 47.777, "architecture_confidence": 93.769, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.16, "rotation_up": 18.15, "upward_expansion": 7.67, "deceleration": 44.91, "rotation_down": 58.58, "downward_expansion": 81.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 9557.311198, 9668.720117, 9739.570722, 9898.411311 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 9516.349609, "trend_reference": 10256.976335, "distance_from_trend": -0.072207, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12652.689491, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.247879, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.00975, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.142024, "excess_performance": -0.087357, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072207, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.106359, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.247879, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020556, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.170098, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068004, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.142024, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.458296, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 401, "relative_activity": 0.276228, "balance": 0.458296, "dry_up": 0.23903, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039243, "annualized_volatility": 0.284964, "from_high_reference": -0.307601, "from_low_reference": 0.043459 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10256.976335, "fair_value_reference": 12652.689491, "structural_low": 9120.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.028594, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.357143, "median_excess_return": 0.027419, "regime_survival": 0.785714, "best_return": 0.190142, "worst_return": -0.148845, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.023505, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.016104, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.219939, "worst_return": -0.12627, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.098321, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.106218, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.308909, "worst_return": -0.072823, 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9772.17001, 9955.082588 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9516.349609, "volume": 401, "typical_volume": 1451.7, "trend": 10256.976335, "fair_value": 12652.689491, "relative_strength": -17.00975, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.854245, "energy": 49.253419, "activity_lines": [ 9557.311198, 9668.720117, 9739.570722, 9898.411311 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }