{ "ticker": { "uuid": "451e25c1-7d85-426f-8846-b6b3e29bec43", "symbol": "603557", "name": "Qibu Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 69.095, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -26.361, "architecture_energy": 42.882, "architecture_maturity": 39.727, "architecture_confidence": 57.738, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 34.67, "rotation_up": 14.34, "upward_expansion": 25.98, "deceleration": 54.22, "rotation_down": 65.71, "downward_expansion": 44.31 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.815333, 4.018182, 4.20081, 4.115742 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.74, "trend_reference": 3.872, "distance_from_trend": -0.034091, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.569423, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.45558, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 13.796357, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.390335, "excess_performance": 0.433538, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.034091, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.158241, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.45558, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.398865, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.137964, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221949, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.390335, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.721878, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22429500, "relative_activity": 0.590339, "balance": 0.721878, "dry_up": 0.636389, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.115385, "annualized_volatility": 0.565696, "from_high_reference": -0.291667, "from_low_reference": 0.684685 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.872, "fair_value_reference": 2.569423, "structural_low": 2.69, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.102941, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.101459, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": -0.032028, "worst_return": -0.176871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.198644, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.186593, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.156584, "worst_return": -0.240705, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.17186, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.211659, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.046263, "worst_return": -0.297456, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.143617, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.069124, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043321, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117438, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09127, "active": false 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2.545, "relative_strength": 32.163146, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.221184, "energy": 16.809286, "activity_lines": [ 4.246, 4.368545, 4.34081, 4.127548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.84, "volume": 23898366, "typical_volume": 46609300.85, "trend": 3.800667, "fair_value": 2.553782, "relative_strength": 21.621357, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.380445, "energy": 11.648351, "activity_lines": [ 4.100667, 4.251818, 4.304429, 4.132667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.63, "volume": 26539698, "typical_volume": 43636741.65, "trend": 3.831667, "fair_value": 2.561026, "relative_strength": 13.990548, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -12.537443, "energy": 23.655998, "activity_lines": [ 3.92, 4.117455, 4.246476, 4.121656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.74, "volume": 22429500, "typical_volume": 37994286.55, "trend": 3.872, "fair_value": 2.569423, "relative_strength": 13.796357, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.361089, "energy": 42.881812, "activity_lines": [ 3.815333, 4.018182, 4.20081, 4.115742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }