{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45211124-15ef-4070-b666-7e56bde1335a", "symbol": "FERG", "name": "Ferguson Plc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.62, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 7.862, "architecture_energy": 13.199, "architecture_maturity": 25.752, "architecture_confidence": 70.846, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 63.98, "rotation_up": 34.4, "upward_expansion": 29.37, "deceleration": 43.84, "rotation_down": 24.46, "downward_expansion": 47.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 240.285333, 236.737455, 236.344908, 237.417739 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 256.69, "trend_reference": 240.296813, "distance_from_trend": 0.068221, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 202.151761, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.269789, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.529062, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.015425, "excess_performance": -0.14105, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.068221, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000206, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.269789, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036884, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035291, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036187, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.015425, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.615505, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 64830836, "relative_activity": 6.856497, "balance": 3.615505, "dry_up": 2.221066, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.054382, "annualized_volatility": 0.328401, "from_high_reference": -0.047611, "from_low_reference": 0.255464 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 240.296813, "fair_value_reference": 202.151761, "structural_low": 213.660399, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.033276, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.307692, "median_excess_return": -0.024187, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.211324, "worst_return": -0.137357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.057554, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.055297, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.315985, "worst_return": -0.105752, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.223176, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.194952, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.339478, 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"stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.858229, "energy": 30.638872, "activity_lines": [ 230.86, 231.526545, 234.474173, 236.636578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 234.33, "volume": 7937626, "typical_volume": 6555868.45, "trend": 239.640408, "fair_value": 201.482174, "relative_strength": -8.928477, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.21925, "energy": 22.919266, "activity_lines": [ 231.703333, 232.199455, 234.376111, 236.317765 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 256.69, "volume": 64830836, "typical_volume": 9455387.65, "trend": 240.296813, "fair_value": 202.151761, "relative_strength": -3.529062, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 7.861556, "energy": 13.198742, "activity_lines": [ 240.285333, 236.737455, 236.344908, 237.417739 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }