{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4527c124-fc77-413b-9a76-6663c412e20c", "symbol": "ADBE", "name": "Adobe Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 34.612, "architecture_energy": 33.212, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 59.884, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.53, "rotation_up": 61.54, "upward_expansion": 33.75, "deceleration": 46.97, "rotation_down": 14.19, "downward_expansion": 20.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 213.38933, 202.646361, 201.993047, 205.10815 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 230.199997, "trend_reference": 212.490333, "distance_from_trend": 0.083343, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 384.15455, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.400762, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -25.809633, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.014097, "excess_performance": -0.16015, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083343, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126803, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.400762, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.07182, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.258096, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.110838, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.014097, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.835996, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2272, "relative_activity": 2.115161, "balance": 2.835996, "dry_up": 2.421682, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075299, "annualized_volatility": 0.467013, "from_high_reference": -0.266996, "from_low_reference": 0.352367 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 212.490333, "fair_value_reference": 384.15455, "structural_low": 170.220001, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.016307, "positive_rate": 0.351351, "directional_follow_through": 0.648649, "median_excess_return": -0.0299, "regime_survival": 0.891892, "best_return": 0.284344, "worst_return": -0.164337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.043058, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.15984, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.182923, "worst_return": -0.215196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.168103, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.320301, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.482134, "worst_return": 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205.788968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 196.699997, "volume": 3435, "typical_volume": 933.4, "trend": 216.765334, "fair_value": 387.372499, "relative_strength": -36.297027, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.559486, "energy": 20.422958, "activity_lines": [ 196.393332, 193.114726, 198.169334, 204.27013 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 213.899994, "volume": 2096, "typical_volume": 981.85, "trend": 214.345333, "fair_value": 385.653909, "relative_strength": -29.755759, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.5527, "energy": 16.468746, "activity_lines": [ 203.442664, 196.431453, 199.282143, 204.085269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 230.199997, "volume": 2272, "typical_volume": 1074.15, "trend": 212.490333, "fair_value": 384.15455, "relative_strength": -25.809633, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.612126, "energy": 33.211895, "activity_lines": [ 213.38933, 202.646361, 201.993047, 205.10815 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }