{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4528189d-fcfd-4a59-b309-8e7fdc27c7a2", "symbol": "4030", "name": "The National Shipping Company of Saudi Arabia", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -33.561, "architecture_energy": 42.51, "architecture_maturity": 38.059, "architecture_confidence": 63.012, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 40.46, "rotation_up": 19.18, "upward_expansion": 29.87, "deceleration": 48.09, "rotation_down": 57.47, "downward_expansion": 43.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.425333, 31.900299, 32.343764, 32.25796 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 30.24, "trend_reference": 31.93127, "distance_from_trend": -0.052966, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.861772, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.267299, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.729278, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.043038, "excess_performance": -0.011209, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.052966, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022759, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.267299, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.200012, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017293, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.165099, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.043038, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.529063, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 15484418, "relative_activity": 2.355022, "balance": 0.529063, "dry_up": 1.765075, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.045569, "annualized_volatility": 0.237003, "from_high_reference": -0.210619, "from_low_reference": 0.423729 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.93127, "fair_value_reference": 23.861772, "structural_low": 28.860001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.006627, "positive_rate": 0.4375, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": -0.006687, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.112022, "worst_return": -0.156385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.026832, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.027287, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.157532, "worst_return": -0.073084, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.042314, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.092626, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.180485, "worst_return": 0.002511, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.176471, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.249403, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.2882, "worst_return": 0.137016, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026738, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032692, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.062057, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016722, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008547, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016103, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006483, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.071033, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009091, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.141357, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081766, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.043593, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.076018, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.078511, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 16.939102, "volume": 14533850, "typical_volume": 1988644.55, "trend": 15.324307, "fair_value": 14.246795, "relative_strength": 12.488029, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.572071, "energy": 12.187182, "activity_lines": [ 32.586666, 32.615853, 32.71726, 32.346249 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.5, "volume": 6847859, "typical_volume": 5397695.8, "trend": 31.745937, "fair_value": 23.685152, "relative_strength": 11.003727, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.334525, "energy": 11.277107, "activity_lines": [ 32.590666, 32.578916, 32.713365, 32.401178 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.1, "volume": 17106358, "typical_volume": 5873452.0, "trend": 31.813937, "fair_value": 23.775635, "relative_strength": 7.665725, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.462793, "energy": 9.218217, "activity_lines": [ 32.090666, 32.302362, 32.567945, 32.359504 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 30.24, "volume": 15484418, "typical_volume": 6575062.85, "trend": 31.93127, "fair_value": 23.861772, "relative_strength": 1.729278, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.561341, "energy": 42.510403, "activity_lines": [ 31.425333, 31.900299, 32.343764, 32.25796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }