{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4528788d-1510-415e-885b-4af9f8da12f4", "symbol": "OILCOUNTUB", "name": "Oil Country Tubular Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.326, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 57.854, "architecture_energy": 27.783, "architecture_maturity": 21.974, "architecture_confidence": 61.189, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.91, "rotation_up": 40.82, "upward_expansion": 68.95, "deceleration": 63.46, "rotation_down": 26.49, "downward_expansion": 9.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.672, 57.469273, 57.354667, 55.264 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 60.73, "trend_reference": 52.938333, "distance_from_trend": 0.147184, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 54.21032, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.120266, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 1.610622, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.250618, "excess_performance": 0.294327, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.147184, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030788, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.120266, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.020241, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.016106, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.108007, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.250618, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.743414, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 259520, "relative_activity": 0.927375, "balance": 1.743414, "dry_up": 0.685049, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08826, "annualized_volatility": 0.54412, "from_high_reference": -0.308236, "from_low_reference": 0.703506 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.938333, "fair_value_reference": 54.21032, "structural_low": 35.650002, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.137135, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": 0.09687, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.792642, "worst_return": -0.197861, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.414438, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.333154, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.705729, "worst_return": -0.035714, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.437996, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.392202, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.257812, "worst_return": 0.047619, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 1.107954, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 1.020576, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.664062, "worst_return": 0.323308, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-03", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.127604, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-03-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.315044, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-08", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.432137, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.086505, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.186364, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.101854, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.251532, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.319517, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.087873, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.181481, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.193305, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.015348, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.096134, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.034583, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 18.549999, "volume": 172657, "typical_volume": 656761.95, "trend": 18.455, "fair_value": 10.799038, "relative_strength": -1.258541, "stage": 2, "regime": 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13.861411, "activity_lines": [ 55.914, 56.755091, 56.058, 54.177312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 58.700001, "volume": 289641, "typical_volume": 349176.55, "trend": 52.92, "fair_value": 53.737051, "relative_strength": -0.509542, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.370273, "energy": 19.011876, "activity_lines": [ 56.588001, 57.005091, 56.565667, 54.542366 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 56.099998, "volume": 123939, "typical_volume": 346137.15, "trend": 52.724667, "fair_value": 53.952756, "relative_strength": -6.270774, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.821878, "energy": 17.570376, "activity_lines": [ 56.257333, 56.801636, 56.769095, 54.747527 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 60.73, "volume": 259520, "typical_volume": 279843.5, "trend": 52.938333, "fair_value": 54.21032, "relative_strength": 1.610622, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.853949, "energy": 27.782904, "activity_lines": [ 57.672, 57.469273, 57.354667, 55.264 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }