{ "ticker": { "uuid": "452ea645-47af-47f3-8558-2980eb729c10", "symbol": "BJLB", "name": "BNP Paribas EASY ECPI Global ESG Infrastructure UCITS ETF USD", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 62.525, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 50.472, "architecture_energy": 25.348, "architecture_maturity": 38.478, "architecture_confidence": 86.044, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.32, "rotation_up": 34.9, "upward_expansion": 57.96, "deceleration": 88.7, "rotation_down": 28.52, "downward_expansion": 17.3 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.2732, 16.250473, 16.283705, 16.189789 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.532, "trend_reference": 16.009667, "distance_from_trend": 0.032626, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.753828, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.296238, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.399723, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.063425, "excess_performance": -0.001215, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.032626, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.038734, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.296238, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035449, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.003997, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.1287, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063425, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.589286, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1378, "relative_activity": 1.148333, "balance": 1.589286, "dry_up": 1.871875, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.014555, "annualized_volatility": 0.130199, "from_high_reference": -0.014662, "from_low_reference": 0.246005 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.009667, "fair_value_reference": 12.753828, "structural_low": 14.982, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.015909, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.017024, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.036637, "worst_return": -0.004818, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.035492, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.077216, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.035492, "worst_return": 0.035492, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.209518, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.041979, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.002597, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021124, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-11-03", "close": 9.7371, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": 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null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-01", "close": 10.296, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-08", "close": 10.342, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-15", "close": 10.668, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-12-22", "close": 10.718, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": 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15.860667, "fair_value": 12.679796, "relative_strength": 4.960757, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.065057, "energy": 18.40729, "activity_lines": [ 16.207733, 16.268837, 16.248924, 16.121652 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.112, "volume": 1371, "typical_volume": 1006.1, "trend": 15.905667, "fair_value": 12.703797, "relative_strength": 3.065153, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 13.892292, "energy": 11.057108, "activity_lines": [ 16.178667, 16.230509, 16.248705, 16.137867 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.129999, "volume": 4724, "typical_volume": 1156.65, "trend": 15.951534, "fair_value": 12.72759, "relative_strength": 0.827218, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.25243, "energy": 11.140854, "activity_lines": [ 16.156933, 16.200218, 16.24841, 16.15234 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.532, "volume": 1378, "typical_volume": 1200.0, "trend": 16.009667, "fair_value": 12.753828, "relative_strength": 0.399723, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.472009, "energy": 25.34844, "activity_lines": [ 16.2732, 16.250473, 16.283705, 16.189789 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }