{ "ticker": { "uuid": "453c7ae1-0bb2-4503-9f99-173aa81ca7a9", "symbol": "KSM-F89", "name": "KSM Mutual Funds Ltd. - KSM ETF (4D) MSCI AC World", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.13, "architecture_energy": 63.522, "architecture_maturity": 95.0, "architecture_confidence": 55.472, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.88, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 47.34, "downward_expansion": 67.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.374667, 16.227455, 412.853857, 698.97228 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 16.55, "trend_reference": 1028.359333, "distance_from_trend": -0.983906, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1347.876795, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.987721, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.830059, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.989197, "excess_performance": -1.018097, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.983906, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.332971, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.987721, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.074317, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.988301, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.746681, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.989197, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.509511, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14201, "relative_activity": 0.293634, "balance": 4.509511, "dry_up": 1.285709, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.358634, "annualized_volatility": 6.359637, "from_high_reference": -0.989591, "from_low_reference": 0.062259 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1028.359333, "fair_value_reference": 1347.876795, "structural_low": 15.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.014498, "positive_rate": 0.611111, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.007754, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.053879, "worst_return": -0.077568, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.015964, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.044746, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.091172, "worst_return": -0.989231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.049603, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.052428, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.058744, "worst_return": -0.0317, 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"typical_volume": 53889.9, "trend": 1182.886667, "fair_value": 1370.984615, "relative_strength": -98.936153, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.994917, "energy": 80.981474, "activity_lines": [ 16.144, 181.736364, 670.35, 914.792473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 16.36, "volume": 160165, "typical_volume": 60900.45, "trend": 1131.465333, "fair_value": 1363.185641, "relative_strength": -98.927727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.637601, "energy": 67.562656, "activity_lines": [ 16.24, 98.772727, 577.357619, 839.532688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.27, "volume": 60530, "typical_volume": 54517.55, "trend": 1080.041, "fair_value": 1355.597628, "relative_strength": -98.877174, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.571496, "energy": 67.399611, "activity_lines": [ 16.275333, 43.695273, 491.526381, 767.584602 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.55, "volume": 14201, "typical_volume": 48363.0, "trend": 1028.359333, "fair_value": 1347.876795, "relative_strength": -98.830059, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.130017, "energy": 63.522362, "activity_lines": [ 16.374667, 16.227455, 412.853857, 698.97228 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }