{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4547aadd-77f7-434f-88b6-970d4afbd2f8", "symbol": "DGEN", "name": "Dollar General Corporation", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 63.909, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 26.048, "architecture_energy": 42.259, "architecture_maturity": 9.164, "architecture_confidence": 67.379, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.95, "rotation_up": 62.76, "upward_expansion": 46.28, "deceleration": 26.75, "rotation_down": 14.6, "downward_expansion": 21.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 108.703334, 106.318768, 102.316471, 103.906689 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 109.75, "trend_reference": 108.175965, "distance_from_trend": 0.014551, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 99.165281, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.106738, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -12.718232, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.115818, "excess_performance": -0.290065, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.014551, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001765, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.106738, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.151556, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127182, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.03931, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.115818, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058424, "annualized_volatility": 0.372525, "from_high_reference": -0.168565, "from_low_reference": 0.343045 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 108.175965, "fair_value_reference": 99.165281, "structural_low": 86.419998, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.033449, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.031277, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.071928, "worst_return": 0.019608, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.274885, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.262493, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.366032, "worst_return": 0.183738, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.120695, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.055787, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.255328, "worst_return": -0.013937, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0384, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.03247, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042041, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037613, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.331989, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 104.449997, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 18.6, "trend": 108.744502, "fair_value": 99.579645, "relative_strength": -15.064688, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.097889, "energy": 23.65322, "activity_lines": [ 106.081527, 102.993143, 100.572787, 103.733348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 110.300003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.3, "trend": 108.618708, "fair_value": 99.370026, "relative_strength": -10.029387, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.703413, "energy": 27.834409, "activity_lines": [ 107.674001, 104.882319, 101.456271, 103.833703 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 109.75, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 7.3, "trend": 108.175965, "fair_value": 99.165281, "relative_strength": -12.718232, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 26.04819, "energy": 42.259236, "activity_lines": [ 108.703334, 106.318768, 102.316471, 103.906689 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }