{ "ticker": { "uuid": "454847c6-869c-4147-b59d-757175cb371a", "symbol": "2020", "name": "SABIC Agri-Nutrients Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 52.631, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.216, "architecture_energy": 72.412, "architecture_maturity": 17.885, "architecture_confidence": 86.488, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.06, "rotation_up": 18.22, "upward_expansion": 17.09, "deceleration": 39.43, "rotation_down": 65.81, "downward_expansion": 92.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 120.372974, 121.665385, 128.296187, 130.866777 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 121.599998, "trend_reference": 131.256064, "distance_from_trend": -0.073567, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 113.12401, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.074927, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.726816, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.005403, "excess_performance": 0.026427, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073567, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029579, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.074927, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.213853, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.007268, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.229959, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.005403, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.62193, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3446354, "relative_activity": 1.175094, "balance": 0.62193, "dry_up": 0.794634, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04624, "annualized_volatility": 0.275269, "from_high_reference": -0.23666, "from_low_reference": 0.151639 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 131.256064, "fair_value_reference": 113.12401, "structural_low": 112.608372, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.018106, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.023413, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.126126, "worst_return": -0.024911, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.046314, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01608, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.385128, "worst_return": -0.108453, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.038884, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.023332, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.107786, "worst_return": -0.109244, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079614, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015101, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004988, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.040486, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.04721, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126126, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024721, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.16836, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090844, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014299, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-04", "close": 120.729393, "volume": 5805328, "typical_volume": 1219502.65, "trend": 110.795188, "fair_value": 103.30418, "relative_strength": 1.5389, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", 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4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.800703, "energy": 75.363955, "activity_lines": [ 120.539683, 123.754487, 131.149047, 132.168878 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 119.400002, "volume": 2918610, "typical_volume": 2920226.65, "trend": 130.7776, "fair_value": 113.147676, "relative_strength": -0.117558, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.041879, "energy": 74.039327, "activity_lines": [ 119.866329, 122.334482, 129.575236, 131.45888 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 121.599998, "volume": 3446354, "typical_volume": 2932831.8, "trend": 131.256064, "fair_value": 113.12401, "relative_strength": -0.726816, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.215772, "energy": 72.411922, "activity_lines": [ 120.372974, 121.665385, 128.296187, 130.866777 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }