{ "ticker": { "uuid": "454ce194-9ec2-4d3e-ba2a-ce8226ea67ab", "symbol": "ABJ", "name": "ABB LTD. N", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.203, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 15.991, "architecture_energy": 21.075, "architecture_maturity": 66.91, "architecture_confidence": 86.696, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 62.99, "rotation_up": 20.62, "upward_expansion": 48.69, "deceleration": 85.14, "rotation_down": 33.8, "downward_expansion": 24.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 86.621335, 88.349456, 88.544953, 85.735376 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 87.480003, "trend_reference": 81.461879, "distance_from_trend": 0.073877, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 39.021216, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.241857, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 11.608889, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.215239, "excess_performance": 0.1506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.073877, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.129893, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.241857, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.477037, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.116089, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.290066, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.215239, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.614569, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32178, "relative_activity": 1.617607, "balance": 0.614569, "dry_up": 1.501984, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052249, "annualized_volatility": 0.268514, "from_high_reference": -0.081285, "from_low_reference": 0.572054 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 81.461879, "fair_value_reference": 39.021216, "structural_low": 67.419998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.116276, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.081456, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.205107, "worst_return": 0.027446, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.295121, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.208405, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.314815, "worst_return": 0.275428, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.504427, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.451236, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.504427, "worst_return": 0.504427, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.2225, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01227, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.095393, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15404, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.014671, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018393, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 17.384733, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 17.384733, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 17.384733, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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"date": "2026-07-31", "close": 85.52, "volume": 28624, "typical_volume": 18858.5, "trend": 80.665856, "fair_value": 38.571887, "relative_strength": 12.781714, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.514761, "energy": 24.676476, "activity_lines": [ 86.896001, 88.765819, 88.350667, 85.295754 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 87.480003, "volume": 32178, "typical_volume": 19892.35, "trend": 81.461879, "fair_value": 39.021216, "relative_strength": 11.608889, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 15.991225, "energy": 21.075081, "activity_lines": [ 86.621335, 88.349456, 88.544953, 85.735376 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }