{ "ticker": { "uuid": "454d515c-3fbc-4988-903b-588ed81b5be7", "symbol": "F1ESG", "name": "UBS SBI Foreign AAA-BBB 1-5 ESG UCITS ETF CHF dis", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 73.655, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -4.868, "architecture_energy": 5.995, "architecture_maturity": 46.503, "architecture_confidence": 56.881, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 69.96, "rotation_up": 25.34, "upward_expansion": 26.45, "deceleration": 59.46, "rotation_down": 41.55, "downward_expansion": 28.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.584733, 11.598855, 11.592369, 11.590061 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 11.576, "trend_reference": 11.591798, "distance_from_trend": -0.001363, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.364165, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.018641, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.047755, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.002164, "excess_performance": -0.085047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.001363, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000901, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.018641, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00669, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.100478, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06427, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.002164, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.457723, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 445444, "relative_activity": 0.847348, "balance": 1.457723, "dry_up": 0.41871, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008526, "annualized_volatility": 0.026401, "from_high_reference": -0.012371, "from_low_reference": 0.010475 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.591798, "fair_value_reference": 11.364165, "structural_low": 11.456, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.000302, "positive_rate": 0.578947, "directional_follow_through": 0.578947, "median_excess_return": -0.006434, "regime_survival": 0.736842, "best_return": 0.014125, "worst_return": -0.009222, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.002847, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.003372, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.012628, "worst_return": -0.015953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.001226, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.032581, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.023949, "worst_return": 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-9.373721, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.910945, "energy": 32.334565, "activity_lines": [ 11.622167, 11.612918, 11.593905, 11.592753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.5535, "volume": 287887, "typical_volume": 509591.25, "trend": 11.590387, "fair_value": 11.353863, "relative_strength": -9.542785, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.794635, "energy": 9.568067, "activity_lines": [ 11.598267, 11.604618, 11.591038, 11.590447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.6, "volume": 72285, "typical_volume": 508830.8, "trend": 11.591592, "fair_value": 11.358798, "relative_strength": -8.96415, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.940691, "energy": 4.849513, "activity_lines": [ 11.593267, 11.604373, 11.592971, 11.591067 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.576, "volume": 445444, "typical_volume": 525691.95, "trend": 11.591798, "fair_value": 11.364165, "relative_strength": -10.047755, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.867655, "energy": 5.995132, "activity_lines": [ 11.584733, 11.598855, 11.592369, 11.590061 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }