{ "ticker": { "uuid": "454dd5f0-f172-42e6-88c5-b50bc87202bc", "symbol": "XMTW", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Taiwan UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 35.434, "architecture_energy": 27.4, "architecture_maturity": 72.648, "architecture_confidence": 88.751, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.61, "rotation_up": 25.91, "upward_expansion": 59.51, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 32.13, "downward_expansion": 20.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 10559.433333, 10807.636364, 10616.757143, 10036.631183 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10813.0, "trend_reference": 9237.183333, "distance_from_trend": 0.170595, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5937.782499, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.82105, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 24.220532, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.475472, "excess_performance": 0.424237, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.170595, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184636, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.82105, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068836, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.242205, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.180123, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.475472, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.194147, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9590, "relative_activity": 0.509444, "balance": 0.194147, "dry_up": 3.304027, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.066567, "annualized_volatility": 0.328639, "from_high_reference": -0.084539, "from_low_reference": 0.88758 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9237.183333, "fair_value_reference": 5937.782499, "structural_low": 7316.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.005465, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.5625, "median_excess_return": 0.031437, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.257339, "worst_return": -0.086237, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.044933, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.039503, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.533874, "worst_return": -0.065223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.081894, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.011079, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.68985, "worst_return": -0.084902, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.185337, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.071773, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.191901, "worst_return": 0.016608, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-11-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.054865, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-11-24", "end": "2024-08-02", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.1903, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10172, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.013007, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074047, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.118386, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.201492, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.091759, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.082253, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", 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"activity_lines": [ 10788.233333, 10972.218182, 10491.571429, 9847.325806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10229.0, "volume": 126828, "typical_volume": 19851.6, "trend": 9110.933333, "fair_value": 5893.048525, "relative_strength": 18.842735, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.894202, "energy": 26.837054, "activity_lines": [ 10548.666667, 10835.2, 10532.614286, 9926.82043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10813.0, "volume": 9590, "typical_volume": 18824.45, "trend": 9237.183333, "fair_value": 5937.782499, "relative_strength": 24.220532, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.434451, "energy": 27.400157, "activity_lines": [ 10559.433333, 10807.636364, 10616.757143, 10036.631183 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }