{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4553a18d-c2c9-41bc-b90d-6c74e4a5c15e", "symbol": "9928", "name": "China Television Company, Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 72.356, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 43.142, "architecture_energy": 20.152, "architecture_maturity": 14.361, "architecture_confidence": 43.216, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.71, "rotation_up": 38.69, "upward_expansion": 59.74, "deceleration": 60.06, "rotation_down": 21.6, "downward_expansion": 14.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.283334, 18.306364, 18.175953, 18.095054 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.6, "trend_reference": 18.051667, "distance_from_trend": 0.030376, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 19.246686, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.0336, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.835385, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.019178, "excess_performance": -0.422194, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.030376, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000277, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.0336, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052252, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.268354, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053256, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.019178, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.553377, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 235096, "relative_activity": 1.023757, "balance": 3.553377, "dry_up": 0.998764, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039289, "annualized_volatility": 0.127918, "from_high_reference": -0.122642, "from_low_reference": 0.097345 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.051667, "fair_value_reference": 19.246686, "structural_low": 17.0, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": -0.019444, "positive_rate": 0.263158, "directional_follow_through": 0.263158, "median_excess_return": -0.03216, "regime_survival": 0.578947, "best_return": 0.041899, "worst_return": -0.110063, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.026642, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.069306, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.809524, "worst_return": -0.122642, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.011009, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.173018, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.348214, "worst_return": -0.165816, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.061224, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.124544, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.059935, "worst_return": -0.113208, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-09-27", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045113, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.099744, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.035144, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.026393, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.10241, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039106, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.051429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044271, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.038356, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016997, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.041899, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061497, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024793, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-11", "close": 18.4, "volume": 105252, "typical_volume": 563814.45, "trend": 19.136667, "fair_value": 16.261344, "relative_strength": -17.638202, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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"trend": 18.04, "fair_value": 19.246045, "relative_strength": -25.501865, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.461322, "energy": 17.045464, "activity_lines": [ 18.15, 18.246364, 18.097857, 18.047957 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.200001, "volume": 170012, "typical_volume": 230441.15, "trend": 18.03, "fair_value": 19.244763, "relative_strength": -26.625903, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.873815, "energy": 18.619478, "activity_lines": [ 18.133334, 18.242728, 18.118572, 18.05828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 18.6, "volume": 235096, "typical_volume": 229640.35, "trend": 18.051667, "fair_value": 19.246686, "relative_strength": -26.835385, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.141963, "energy": 20.151662, "activity_lines": [ 18.283334, 18.306364, 18.175953, 18.095054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }