{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45567d37-de17-4e05-9610-bbcc129cb538", "symbol": "MDT", "name": "Medtronic plc", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 74.512, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 10.403, "architecture_energy": 29.6, "architecture_maturity": 6.275, "architecture_confidence": 42.714, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.93, "rotation_up": 51.26, "upward_expansion": 44.49, "deceleration": 22.97, "rotation_down": 14.89, "downward_expansion": 45.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.719998, 72.759777, 70.92826, 71.881903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 74.559998, "trend_reference": 74.304869, "distance_from_trend": 0.003434, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 74.109596, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.006078, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.808787, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.131469, "excess_performance": -0.305716, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.003434, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048826, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.006078, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.133766, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.218088, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.080466, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.131469, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 658, "relative_activity": 2.517215, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 2.951415, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042669, "annualized_volatility": 0.238194, "from_high_reference": -0.168053, "from_low_reference": 0.18727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 74.304869, "fair_value_reference": 74.109596, "structural_low": 62.799549, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007028, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.000839, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.058433, "worst_return": -0.059877, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.006506, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.034253, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.06895, "worst_return": -0.132064, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.103484, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.089399, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.116627, "worst_return": -0.013861, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000888, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.031564, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039564, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06541, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09082, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.185881, "energy": 19.538864, "activity_lines": [ 72.308093, 70.702728, 70.096372, 72.087739 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 73.279999, "volume": 610, "typical_volume": 172.3, "trend": 74.826131, "fair_value": 74.046096, "relative_strength": -21.917163, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.387357, "energy": 21.447309, "activity_lines": [ 72.863999, 71.434543, 70.307295, 71.967696 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 73.519997, "volume": 1166, "typical_volume": 230.6, "trend": 74.583664, "fair_value": 74.072423, "relative_strength": -21.109191, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.221831, "energy": 21.050465, "activity_lines": [ 73.181332, 72.062277, 70.563034, 71.88343 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.559998, "volume": 658, "typical_volume": 261.4, "trend": 74.304869, "fair_value": 74.109596, "relative_strength": -21.808787, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 10.403079, "energy": 29.599678, "activity_lines": [ 73.719998, 72.759777, 70.92826, 71.881903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }