{ "ticker": { "uuid": "455b2e16-40f7-4e8f-b126-960949251925", "symbol": "A1LK34", "name": "Alaska Air Group, Inc.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 77.728, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -24.114, "architecture_energy": 40.59, "architecture_maturity": 63.235, "architecture_confidence": 64.713, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.54, "rotation_up": 16.67, "upward_expansion": 25.3, "deceleration": 70.16, "rotation_down": 66.88, "downward_expansion": 38.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 223.831998, 237.320361, 228.966665, 227.740321 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 216.479996, "trend_reference": 234.776998, "distance_from_trend": -0.077934, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 249.319872, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.131718, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.925596, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.242017, "excess_performance": -0.184968, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.077934, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014628, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.131718, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.116601, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.179256, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.224413, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.242017, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.718447, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.718447, "dry_up": 0.876289, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052568, "annualized_volatility": 0.564446, "from_high_reference": -0.372704, "from_low_reference": 0.239011 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 234.776998, "fair_value_reference": 249.319872, "structural_low": 174.720001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.025614, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.05457, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.269811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.030975, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.096217, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.514044, "worst_return": -0.222125, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.151899, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.073521, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.560942, "worst_return": -0.257144, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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226.320007, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 40.95, "trend": 237.753666, "fair_value": 249.352693, "relative_strength": -18.319085, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.382593, "energy": 30.624246, "activity_lines": [ 211.984002, 206.400002, 211.317524, 224.972602 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 255.300003, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 40.95, "trend": 239.030332, "fair_value": 249.412308, "relative_strength": -5.980976, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 22.760362, "energy": 36.925943, "activity_lines": [ 228.548002, 215.198548, 214.121096, 226.104623 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 275.579987, "volume": 54, "typical_volume": 43.1, "trend": 240.860998, "fair_value": 249.601924, "relative_strength": -0.83685, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 54.464729, "energy": 59.870327, "activity_lines": [ 247.367997, 226.939636, 218.981285, 228.462666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 276.079987, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30.55, "trend": 242.120998, "fair_value": 249.794744, "relative_strength": -0.82948, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 53.347579, "energy": 82.918705, "activity_lines": [ 261.035994, 237.90436, 223.936808, 230.734858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 253.240005, "volume": 1, "typical_volume": 30.6, "trend": 242.619665, "fair_value": 249.841154, "relative_strength": -10.275686, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.015806, "energy": 75.360589, "activity_lines": [ 262.278663, 243.716362, 226.823809, 231.452214 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 253.240005, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 30.45, "trend": 241.529665, "fair_value": 249.887565, "relative_strength": -7.500687, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.990898, "energy": 75.362334, "activity_lines": [ 260.923999, 248.378544, 229.926286, 232.137397 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 216.479996, "volume": 102, "typical_volume": 35.15, "trend": 239.117665, "fair_value": 249.698334, "relative_strength": -20.324075, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 2.451623, "energy": 25.547908, "activity_lines": [ 245.521332, 245.16618, 229.604571, 230.521289 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 216.479996, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 29.1, "trend": 236.947332, "fair_value": 249.509103, "relative_strength": -21.301872, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -17.695264, "energy": 28.819028, "activity_lines": [ 232.706665, 241.431271, 229.322475, 229.060795 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 216.479996, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 29.1, "trend": 234.776998, "fair_value": 249.319872, "relative_strength": -17.925596, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.113767, "energy": 40.590221, "activity_lines": [ 223.831998, 237.320361, 228.966665, 227.740321 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }