{ "ticker": { "uuid": "455dc534-1ce4-47e8-b726-588aaa7fd794", "symbol": "2250", "name": "Saudi Industrial Investment Group", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 76.226, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.915, "architecture_energy": 67.528, "architecture_maturity": 7.428, "architecture_confidence": 83.413, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.99, "rotation_up": 14.17, "upward_expansion": 29.7, "deceleration": 49.06, "rotation_down": 78.04, "downward_expansion": 61.7 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.594667, 13.026, 13.457333, 13.437032 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 12.36, "trend_reference": 13.259667, "distance_from_trend": -0.06785, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.813452, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.143021, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -12.784607, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.032581, "excess_performance": 0.064411, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.06785, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004489, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.143021, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.215617, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.127846, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.075338, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.032581, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.651377, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4608197, "relative_activity": 1.134066, "balance": 0.651377, "dry_up": 0.934637, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.048357, "annualized_volatility": 0.301653, "from_high_reference": -0.370331, "from_low_reference": 0.08326 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.259667, "fair_value_reference": 10.813452, "structural_low": 11.85, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a 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13.210006, "fair_value": 10.691284, "relative_strength": -5.888602, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.391149, "energy": 25.545032, "activity_lines": [ 14.072, 14.129818, 13.873619, 13.563011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.48, "volume": 1889461, "typical_volume": 4330747.6, "trend": 13.218333, "fair_value": 10.713431, "relative_strength": -7.53376, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.695546, "energy": 16.759235, "activity_lines": [ 13.854, 14.025273, 13.860381, 13.58043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.11, "volume": 1660492, "typical_volume": 4219425.55, "trend": 13.214, "fair_value": 10.732841, "relative_strength": -9.59452, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 7.102237, "energy": 15.299302, "activity_lines": [ 13.567333, 13.844545, 13.811857, 13.573441 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.35, "volume": 2133499, "typical_volume": 4188255.0, "trend": 13.234333, "fair_value": 10.755984, "relative_strength": -6.803241, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.769982, "energy": 18.253515, "activity_lines": [ 13.427333, 13.722727, 13.785667, 13.582215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.17, "volume": 4089818, "typical_volume": 4238065.5, "trend": 13.256667, "fair_value": 10.777608, "relative_strength": -8.213441, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.354012, "energy": 23.215801, "activity_lines": [ 13.296, 13.584364, 13.74019, 13.578065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.95, "volume": 4359808, "typical_volume": 3924035.05, "trend": 13.239333, "fair_value": 10.795191, "relative_strength": -14.443931, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -51.361354, "energy": 66.062681, "activity_lines": [ 12.812, 13.246545, 13.577381, 13.493763 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.36, "volume": 4608197, "typical_volume": 4063428.85, "trend": 13.259667, "fair_value": 10.813452, "relative_strength": -12.784607, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.914887, "energy": 67.527787, "activity_lines": [ 12.594667, 13.026, 13.457333, 13.437032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }