{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45683564-9b02-46ef-a7c1-c5e76546b167", "symbol": "EVR", "name": "Evercore Partners Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 74.878, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -27.179, "architecture_energy": 29.399, "architecture_maturity": 16.017, "architecture_confidence": 63.662, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.67, "rotation_up": 15.42, "upward_expansion": 17.23, "deceleration": 57.41, "rotation_down": 54.74, "downward_expansion": 39.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 323.244, 332.934364, 337.071713, 332.231657 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 305.94, "trend_reference": 330.820339, "distance_from_trend": -0.075208, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 250.280379, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.222389, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.898799, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.140209, "excess_performance": -0.265834, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.075208, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.009311, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.222389, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245069, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168988, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.15067, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.140209, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.518772, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2310839, "relative_activity": 0.95703, "balance": 0.518772, "dry_up": 1.104439, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.085652, "annualized_volatility": 0.407159, "from_high_reference": -0.208734, "from_low_reference": 0.153717 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 330.820339, "fair_value_reference": 250.280379, "structural_low": 265.17761, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.009457, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.028246, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.171127, "worst_return": -0.096458, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.10656, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.081174, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.301897, "worst_return": -0.060358, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.358219, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.207204, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.358932, "worst_return": 0.024022, 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334.823671 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 320.56, "volume": 3888060, "typical_volume": 2489607.35, "trend": 332.857362, "fair_value": 249.168039, "relative_strength": -10.11964, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.352484, "energy": 12.313598, "activity_lines": [ 333.205333, 339.682182, 339.666609, 333.968261 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 305.94, "volume": 2310839, "typical_volume": 2414594.95, "trend": 330.820339, "fair_value": 250.280379, "relative_strength": -16.898799, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -27.179494, "energy": 29.399145, "activity_lines": [ 323.244, 332.934364, 337.071713, 332.231657 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }