{ "ticker": { "uuid": "4568447b-1963-4196-b826-54e77a4abb2d", "symbol": "000520", "name": "Phoenix Shipping (Wuhan) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.436, "architecture_energy": 39.294, "architecture_maturity": 16.744, "architecture_confidence": 87.383, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.83, "rotation_up": 16.97, "upward_expansion": 10.53, "deceleration": 38.04, "rotation_down": 57.14, "downward_expansion": 76.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.856667, 3.995636, 4.031857, 4.090925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.95, "trend_reference": 4.199, "distance_from_trend": -0.0593, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.85141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.025598, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.224453, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.089862, "excess_performance": -0.097262, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.0593, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.057111, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.025598, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083193, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.142245, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.138021, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.089862, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.819825, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 86204687, "relative_activity": 0.930909, "balance": 0.819825, "dry_up": 1.299114, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.138072, "annualized_volatility": 0.592634, "from_high_reference": -0.2603, "from_low_reference": 0.200608 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.199, "fair_value_reference": 3.85141, "structural_low": 3.29, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.021212, "positive_rate": 0.391304, "directional_follow_through": 0.391304, "median_excess_return": -0.026614, "regime_survival": 0.521739, "best_return": 0.137255, "worst_return": -0.245421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.060729, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.033906, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.091703, "worst_return": -0.265574, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.038782, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.07858, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.834483, "worst_return": -0.134048, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.032102, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.043331, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.744262, "worst_return": -0.22252, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.542254, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.2513, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.043779, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.058952, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016393, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031042, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.02766, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004301, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037611, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010121, 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[ 4.284, 4.211636, 4.152048, 4.216774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.78, "volume": 116745361, "typical_volume": 108926749.25, "trend": 4.318667, "fair_value": 3.834936, "relative_strength": -16.820775, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.835941, "energy": 18.443899, "activity_lines": [ 4.128, 4.144727, 4.113429, 4.179419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.8, "volume": 180047653, "typical_volume": 96714922.25, "trend": 4.274333, "fair_value": 3.840385, "relative_strength": -15.885097, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.744845, "energy": 19.122062, "activity_lines": [ 4.003333, 4.088727, 4.08081, 4.145957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.7, "volume": 98208351, "typical_volume": 93555810.1, "trend": 4.228667, "fair_value": 3.845192, "relative_strength": -16.104461, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.848191, "energy": 38.788958, "activity_lines": [ 3.884667, 4.018, 4.042667, 4.108903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.95, "volume": 86204687, "typical_volume": 92602733.8, "trend": 4.199, "fair_value": 3.85141, "relative_strength": -14.224453, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.43614, "energy": 39.294062, "activity_lines": [ 3.856667, 3.995636, 4.031857, 4.090925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }