{ "ticker": { "uuid": "456f0cf0-8c1a-4a68-8f02-f6afa46e4a2a", "symbol": "300165", "name": "Jiangsu Skyray Instrument Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 52.717, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.141, "architecture_energy": 57.749, "architecture_maturity": 12.106, "architecture_confidence": 63.573, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.56, "rotation_up": 18.1, "upward_expansion": 20.76, "deceleration": 43.98, "rotation_down": 68.06, "downward_expansion": 62.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.897333, 5.116182, 5.638, 5.70028 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 5.24, "trend_reference": 5.673, "distance_from_trend": -0.076326, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.423205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.184661, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.68365, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.045908, "excess_performance": 0.038508, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.076326, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041554, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.184661, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.703856, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.026837, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.502917, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.045908, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.373417, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69230550, "relative_activity": 0.649644, "balance": 0.373417, "dry_up": 0.791145, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.131973, "annualized_volatility": 0.676858, "from_high_reference": -0.424808, "from_low_reference": 0.31 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.673, "fair_value_reference": 4.423205, "structural_low": 4.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.038549, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.020632, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.567686, "worst_return": -0.129848, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.143615, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.135489, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.777778, "worst_return": 0.013378, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.052237, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.164469, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.344482, "worst_return": -0.211438, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.106576, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.290217, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.695652, "worst_return": -0.37435, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102632, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.090909, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.016722, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.042623, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031847, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.092409, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022472, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.236702, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.089485, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.110454, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.190566, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.184032, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.163121, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.151648, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 6.74, "volume": 40849400, "typical_volume": 113747083.85, "trend": 5.771667, "fair_value": 5.458358, "relative_strength": 26.621974, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.351386, "energy": 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46.20792, "activity_lines": [ 5.21, 5.552182, 5.928667, 5.855892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.55, "volume": 94245828, "typical_volume": 104295842.75, "trend": 5.656, "fair_value": 4.445064, "relative_strength": -12.261885, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.637591, "energy": 55.042377, "activity_lines": [ 4.92, 5.306182, 5.798476, 5.784452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.77, "volume": 96732196, "typical_volume": 105905846.55, "trend": 5.658667, "fair_value": 4.432372, "relative_strength": -6.682175, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.782323, "energy": 60.997176, "activity_lines": [ 4.804667, 5.150545, 5.69381, 5.72729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.24, "volume": 69230550, "typical_volume": 106566956.75, "trend": 5.673, "fair_value": 4.423205, "relative_strength": -2.68365, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.140654, "energy": 57.74904, "activity_lines": [ 4.897333, 5.116182, 5.638, 5.70028 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }