{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "457256de-701a-4b36-8615-0e504c08e6ae",
    "symbol": "LYMS",
    "name": "Amundi Core Nasdaq-100 Swap UCITS ETF Acc",
    "exchange": "GER",
    "country": "DE",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^GDAXI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 47.237,
    "architecture_energy": 30.502,
    "architecture_maturity": 68.982,
    "architecture_confidence": 90.979,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 28.1,
        "rotation_up": 31.42,
        "upward_expansion": 62.23,
        "deceleration": 85.49,
        "rotation_down": 30.78,
        "downward_expansion": 21.23
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        102.249333,
        103.273091,
        102.426095,
        99.185936
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.5
    },
    "latest_close": 104.639999,
    "trend_reference": 95.146667,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.099776,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 77.400898,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.351922,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": 6.089525,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.220292,
    "excess_performance": 0.155652,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.099776,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.060232,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.351922,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.018303,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.060895,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.109347,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.220292,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 1.673884,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 199214,
      "relative_activity": 1.7164,
      "balance": 1.673884,
      "dry_up": 1.175641,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.034183,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.189377,
      "from_high_reference": -0.029314,
      "from_low_reference": 0.31095
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 95.146667,
      "fair_value_reference": 77.400898,
      "structural_low": 81.800003,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": 0.020654,
        "positive_rate": 0.875,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.875,
        "median_excess_return": 0.009483,
        "regime_survival": 0.375,
        "best_return": 0.088651,
        "worst_return": -0.011614,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.063757,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.038317,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.168774,
        "worst_return": 0.019317,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.121893,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.092098,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.21065,
        "worst_return": 0.000773,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.148226,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.060527,
        "regime_survival": 0.333333,
        "best_return": 0.286723,
        "worst_return": -0.141531,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2023-10-13",
        "end": "2023-11-24",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.021924,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2023-12-01",
        "end": "2024-04-26",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.134148,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-05-03",
        "end": "2024-05-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.030698,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-08-02",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.027294,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-09",
        "end": "2024-10-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.098648,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-10-18",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.061484,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.116263,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.170311,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-07-04",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.011637,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-07-11",
        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.04002,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2026-01-30",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.077725,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2026-02-06",
        "end": "2026-05-01",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.102157,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-05-08",
        "end": "2026-07-17",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.012144,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-07-24",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.03236,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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        "typical_volume": 157616.8,
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        "typical_volume": 165071.7,
        "trend": 87.367334,
        "fair_value": 72.689103,
        "relative_strength": 12.04666,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.782373,
        "energy": 55.678188,
        "activity_lines": [
          90.184002,
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          87.454
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "typical_volume": 164302.85,
        "trend": 87.646,
        "fair_value": 72.98734,
        "relative_strength": 10.942592,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
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        "energy": 79.289647,
        "activity_lines": [
          92.336668,
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          88.122239,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
        "close": 100.459999,
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        "typical_volume": 163947.55,
        "trend": 88.136667,
        "fair_value": 73.31641,
        "relative_strength": 17.024244,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 92.492419,
        "energy": 95.141026,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 169029.35,
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        "fair_value": 73.645641,
        "relative_strength": 20.620815,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 91.717021,
        "energy": 96.606784,
        "activity_lines": [
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          90.673048,
          89.665613
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "volume": 128507,
        "typical_volume": 172220.8,
        "trend": 89.253334,
        "fair_value": 73.970128,
        "relative_strength": 17.019002,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.764934,
        "energy": 95.304544,
        "activity_lines": [
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          90.643097
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "typical_volume": 169618.1,
        "trend": 89.741334,
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "volume": 31714,
        "typical_volume": 163340.15,
        "trend": 90.343,
        "fair_value": 74.621603,
        "relative_strength": 17.063816,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 72.501254,
        "energy": 89.951201,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 104.360001,
        "volume": 45740,
        "typical_volume": 156042.9,
        "trend": 90.895333,
        "fair_value": 74.93391,
        "relative_strength": 16.853295,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 68.345633,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "typical_volume": 147868.5,
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        "relative_strength": 18.31133,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "energy": 87.849889,
        "activity_lines": [
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          94.65
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 104.540001,
        "volume": 14273,
        "typical_volume": 137336.6,
        "trend": 92.175333,
        "fair_value": 75.587436,
        "relative_strength": 15.63788,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.233549,
        "energy": 66.012413,
        "activity_lines": [
          105.437334,
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          98.661572,
          95.481742
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 105.5,
        "volume": 16604,
        "typical_volume": 132194.75,
        "trend": 92.707333,
        "fair_value": 75.909231,
        "relative_strength": 11.214742,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 65.938342,
        "energy": 64.992626,
        "activity_lines": [
          105.478667,
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          99.736,
          96.341398
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 105.82,
        "volume": 124334,
        "typical_volume": 126985.3,
        "trend": 93.332333,
        "fair_value": 76.229231,
        "relative_strength": 14.145245,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 66.694917,
        "energy": 64.39343,
        "activity_lines": [
          105.640001,
          105.215636,
          100.742238,
          97.187376
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 101.68,
        "volume": 105495,
        "typical_volume": 123450.45,
        "trend": 93.798,
        "fair_value": 76.522628,
        "relative_strength": 10.269138,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.229939,
        "energy": 51.263293,
        "activity_lines": [
          104.334667,
          104.703273,
          101.260619,
          97.725936
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 101.360001,
        "volume": 122142,
        "typical_volume": 119211.8,
        "trend": 94.244,
        "fair_value": 76.805,
        "relative_strength": 8.34541,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.301827,
        "energy": 40.481418,
        "activity_lines": [
          103.101334,
          104.110546,
          101.672572,
          98.213807
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 99.32,
        "volume": 118952,
        "typical_volume": 115956.7,
        "trend": 94.648,
        "fair_value": 77.081667,
        "relative_strength": 3.72209,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 37.936195,
        "energy": 27.673359,
        "activity_lines": [
          101.614667,
          103.166909,
          101.825619,
          98.541291
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 104.639999,
        "volume": 199214,
        "typical_volume": 116065.0,
        "trend": 95.146667,
        "fair_value": 77.400898,
        "relative_strength": 6.089525,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 47.237302,
        "energy": 30.50152,
        "activity_lines": [
          102.249333,
          103.273091,
          102.426095,
          99.185936
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}