{ "ticker": { "uuid": "457adb85-0758-4c13-89c8-f5632964f14f", "symbol": "6465", "name": "ATrack Technology Inc.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 59.376, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -2.015, "architecture_energy": 21.683, "architecture_maturity": 45.913, "architecture_confidence": 93.173, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.97, "rotation_up": 14.2, "upward_expansion": 41.94, "deceleration": 86.02, "rotation_down": 49.15, "downward_expansion": 38.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 48.319999, 53.017707, 53.691532, 51.203288 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 47.099998, "trend_reference": 47.013227, "distance_from_trend": 0.001846, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.266585, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.727389, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.467927, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.387216, "excess_performance": -0.054156, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.001846, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.248242, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.727389, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112751, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.004679, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.199175, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.387216, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.274783, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 765440, "relative_activity": 0.30998, "balance": 1.274783, "dry_up": 0.61921, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.180808, "annualized_volatility": 0.818343, "from_high_reference": -0.391473, "from_low_reference": 2.295572 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 47.013227, "fair_value_reference": 27.266585, "structural_low": 30.762024, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.03495, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.025117, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.498433, "worst_return": -0.091811, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.023839, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.066534, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.655172, "worst_return": -0.196078, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.159041, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.194412, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.050549, "worst_return": -0.393597, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.124313, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.197561, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.078313, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053872, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.113044, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.130894, "energy": 39.973433, "activity_lines": [ 60.271005, 59.724419, 54.894961, 50.649414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 50.700001, "volume": 1776025, "typical_volume": 2610905.8, "trend": 46.070653, "fair_value": 26.773622, "relative_strength": 14.438772, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.670133, "energy": 22.402771, "activity_lines": [ 56.31217, 58.507402, 54.907177, 50.974554 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 48.0, "volume": 1400402, "typical_volume": 2639765.4, "trend": 46.387655, "fair_value": 26.941778, "relative_strength": 8.959497, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.439996, "energy": 19.453925, "activity_lines": [ 52.82, 56.698945, 54.592948, 51.099028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 47.599998, "volume": 2174249, "typical_volume": 2542976.55, "trend": 46.69631, "fair_value": 27.104903, "relative_strength": 4.703692, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.719366, "energy": 22.232566, "activity_lines": [ 50.159999, 54.902295, 54.165898, 51.177244 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 47.099998, "volume": 765440, "typical_volume": 2469320.9, "trend": 47.013227, "fair_value": 27.266585, "relative_strength": -0.467927, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -2.0154, "energy": 21.682744, "activity_lines": [ 48.319999, 53.017707, 53.691532, 51.203288 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }