{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45813483-acbe-4b60-8de6-9e1da32f2c81", "symbol": "DRVE", "name": "Global X Autonomous & Electric Vehicles UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.491, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -4.333, "architecture_energy": 31.183, "architecture_maturity": 57.298, "architecture_confidence": 83.115, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.86, "rotation_up": 14.03, "upward_expansion": 44.55, "deceleration": 87.05, "rotation_down": 50.67, "downward_expansion": 38.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.250933, 15.7444, 16.163067, 15.763273 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 15.726, "trend_reference": 15.206467, "distance_from_trend": 0.034165, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.677699, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.346669, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -2.966819, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.137093, "excess_performance": -0.033798, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034165, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079989, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.346669, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.155932, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029668, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235535, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.137093, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.348401, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1714, "relative_activity": 1.469605, "balance": 2.348401, "dry_up": 1.35364, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052251, "annualized_volatility": 0.285935, "from_high_reference": -0.14281, "from_low_reference": 0.499428 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.206467, "fair_value_reference": 11.677699, "structural_low": 12.768, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.044345, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.041059, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.196593, "worst_return": -0.11802, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.157232, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.018732, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.357132, "worst_return": -0.042668, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.006335, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.165616, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.006335, "worst_return": -0.006335, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.081796, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.27472, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.081796, "worst_return": -0.081796, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.034004, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.04122, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.108023, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.104615, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050989, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.014832, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.021812, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.178139, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.106604, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.057078, "active": false }, { 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.467654, "energy": 47.244648, "activity_lines": [ 16.920533, 17.141418, 16.316095, 15.652925 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 16.148001, "volume": 2828, "typical_volume": 1015.3, "trend": 14.925333, "fair_value": 11.591391, "relative_strength": 2.453161, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.770349, "energy": 30.111034, "activity_lines": [ 16.6024, 16.971164, 16.378648, 15.73837 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.986, "volume": 1800, "typical_volume": 1059.6, "trend": 15.002067, "fair_value": 11.612071, "relative_strength": -3.740621, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.290296, "energy": 25.696093, "activity_lines": [ 15.983334, 16.581127, 16.320114, 15.742284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15.242, "volume": 2720, "typical_volume": 1146.55, "trend": 15.081, "fair_value": 11.632173, "relative_strength": -2.135876, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.981028, "energy": 27.471222, "activity_lines": [ 15.609334, 16.272255, 16.281276, 15.757763 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.572, "volume": 81, "typical_volume": 1116.65, "trend": 15.1316, "fair_value": 11.649468, "relative_strength": -7.185119, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -19.932917, "energy": 38.071267, "activity_lines": [ 15.1744, 15.876073, 16.170124, 15.724925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.726, "volume": 1714, "typical_volume": 1166.3, "trend": 15.206467, "fair_value": 11.677699, "relative_strength": -2.966819, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.332548, "energy": 31.182645, "activity_lines": [ 15.250933, 15.7444, 16.163067, 15.763273 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }