{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45864420-8158-4459-a5ae-679989408c7c", "symbol": "AMRN", "name": "Amarin Corporation PLC", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 82.745, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -41.122, "architecture_energy": 32.897, "architecture_maturity": 11.773, "architecture_confidence": 67.061, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.85, "rotation_up": 9.71, "upward_expansion": 10.77, "deceleration": 55.61, "rotation_down": 62.38, "downward_expansion": 67.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.15, 14.639818, 14.713095, 14.710516 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.36, "trend_reference": 14.758667, "distance_from_trend": -0.027012, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.927558, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.038021, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -18.352996, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.026441, "excess_performance": -0.213894, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.027012, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009641, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.038021, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.002499, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.18353, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010274, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.026441, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.751523, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 258493, "relative_activity": 0.754195, "balance": 0.751523, "dry_up": 0.8518, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08785, "annualized_volatility": 0.371595, "from_high_reference": -0.312919, "from_low_reference": 0.108025 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.758667, "fair_value_reference": 14.927558, "structural_low": 12.96, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.000651, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.042221, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.456, "worst_return": -0.236897, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013504, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.00909, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.439962, "worst_return": -0.340509, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.088, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.316377, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.315059, "worst_return": -0.309198, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.328489, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.617035, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.29424, "worst_return": -0.786693, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-03-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.277563, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-29", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02335, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.260295, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.206974, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.239209, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.221902, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.131321, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.203834, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103675, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.157509, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.149929, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.066354, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.148442, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059779, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 21.0, "volume": 17667625, "typical_volume": 12244111.4, "trend": 27.986667, "fair_value": 65.291667, "relative_strength": -33.762433, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", 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15.103391, "relative_strength": -18.899873, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 18.774875, "energy": 11.605302, "activity_lines": [ 15.078667, 15.102545, 14.911905, 14.854753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.55, "volume": 274831, "typical_volume": 353707.3, "trend": 14.789333, "fair_value": 15.037686, "relative_strength": -19.422273, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -20.590898, "energy": 17.026321, "activity_lines": [ 14.453333, 14.842909, 14.794048, 14.773527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.26, "volume": 283296, "typical_volume": 340794.4, "trend": 14.807333, "fair_value": 14.977814, "relative_strength": -15.216132, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.762637, "energy": 31.235855, "activity_lines": [ 14.23, 14.730727, 14.746238, 14.739376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.36, "volume": 258493, "typical_volume": 342740.15, "trend": 14.758667, "fair_value": 14.927558, "relative_strength": -18.352996, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.12202, "energy": 32.896526, "activity_lines": [ 14.15, 14.639818, 14.713095, 14.710516 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }