{ "ticker": { "uuid": "458b3497-db57-47a5-ad0a-e5b5c2860877", "symbol": "MSC", "name": "Studio City International Holdings Ltd", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -55.69, "architecture_energy": 39.302, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 91.0, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.99, "rotation_up": 23.76, "upward_expansion": 5.22, "deceleration": 56.46, "rotation_down": 46.49, "downward_expansion": 76.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.806667, 1.836733, 2.048385, 2.239383 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.81, "trend_reference": 2.499707, "distance_from_trend": -0.275915, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.825935, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.624943, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.458282, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.43349, "excess_performance": -0.559115, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.275915, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.16959, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.624943, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.103647, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.484583, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112749, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.43349, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.103238, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 840239, "relative_activity": 9.353933, "balance": 0.103238, "dry_up": 2.432539, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.249851, "annualized_volatility": 0.778616, "from_high_reference": -0.726998, "from_low_reference": 0.152866 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.499707, "fair_value_reference": 4.825935, "structural_low": 1.57, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.025845, "positive_rate": 0.378378, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.037221, "regime_survival": 0.864865, "best_return": 0.46429, "worst_return": -0.221079, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.090253, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.115896, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.646259, "worst_return": -0.383648, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.362114, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.465154, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 2.678049, "worst_return": -0.650767, "sufficient": true }, 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.099355, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068393, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.327869, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.114047, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171701, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": 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"direction": -71.476298, "energy": 74.472459, "activity_lines": [ 1.762007, 1.937278, 2.194149, 2.387316 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.83, "volume": 8441, "typical_volume": 48569.05, "trend": 2.610373, "fair_value": 4.889268, "relative_strength": -47.901154, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.746246, "energy": 60.203765, "activity_lines": [ 1.770667, 1.891278, 2.13991, 2.334593 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.88, "volume": 11233, "typical_volume": 48836.2, "trend": 2.555373, "fair_value": 4.857281, "relative_strength": -45.900416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.652432, "energy": 55.990106, "activity_lines": [ 1.802, 1.865824, 2.09529, 2.287472 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.81, "volume": 840239, "typical_volume": 89827.35, "trend": 2.499707, "fair_value": 4.825935, "relative_strength": -48.458282, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.690278, "energy": 39.302463, "activity_lines": [ 1.806667, 1.836733, 2.048385, 2.239383 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }