{ "ticker": { "uuid": "458c8b68-5541-421e-851e-548e56930c17", "symbol": "000952", "name": "Hubei Guangji Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.747, "architecture_energy": 51.16, "architecture_maturity": 55.746, "architecture_confidence": 92.947, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 8.4, "rotation_up": 25.1, "upward_expansion": 8.18, "deceleration": 60.01, "rotation_down": 53.12, "downward_expansion": 81.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.650667, 5.681273, 6.112381, 6.446387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.05, "trend_reference": 6.918, "distance_from_trend": -0.12547, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.478397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.066127, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.32531, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.23995, "excess_performance": -0.24735, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.12547, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080787, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.066127, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.217189, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163253, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.043674, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.23995, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.294779, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 36082810, "relative_activity": 1.028416, "balance": 0.294779, "dry_up": 1.273491, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08773, "annualized_volatility": 0.336921, "from_high_reference": -0.419386, "from_low_reference": 0.21 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.918, "fair_value_reference": 6.478397, "structural_low": 5.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.018742, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.035229, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.140385, "worst_return": -0.136678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.084677, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": 0.073504, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.334615, "worst_return": -0.149231, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0217, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.054449, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.217308, "worst_return": -0.0125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"relative_strength": -21.439538, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.279547, "energy": 81.796079, "activity_lines": [ 5.649333, 5.930909, 6.404, 6.721527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.17, "volume": 51819059, "typical_volume": 34709694.7, "trend": 7.005333, "fair_value": 6.504038, "relative_strength": -26.862946, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.911353, "energy": 67.363987, "activity_lines": [ 5.475333, 5.734545, 6.255571, 6.598387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.55, "volume": 41524422, "typical_volume": 35230484.3, "trend": 6.950667, "fair_value": 6.49, "relative_strength": -19.761738, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.034125, "energy": 61.878443, "activity_lines": [ 5.480667, 5.647091, 6.155429, 6.504495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.05, "volume": 36082810, "typical_volume": 35085794.8, "trend": 6.918, "fair_value": 6.478397, "relative_strength": -16.32531, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.746894, "energy": 51.160471, "activity_lines": [ 5.650667, 5.681273, 6.112381, 6.446387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }