{ "ticker": { "uuid": "458deadb-b845-41bb-9033-f1120c60a89a", "symbol": "MTI", "name": "Muang Thai Insurance Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 69.599, "architecture_energy": 65.211, "architecture_maturity": 29.591, "architecture_confidence": 59.308, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.97, "rotation_up": 76.31, "upward_expansion": 87.14, "deceleration": 56.01, "rotation_down": 11.12, "downward_expansion": 11.47 }, "activity_lines": [ 17.906667, 17.436364, 16.639524, 16.24062 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 18.0, "trend_reference": 15.765362, "distance_from_trend": 0.141743, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.983189, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.502104, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.646267, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.199593, "excess_performance": 0.007268, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.141743, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050574, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.502104, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.159242, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.006463, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.118565, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.199593, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.24033, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 25900, "relative_activity": 0.070155, "balance": 0.24033, "dry_up": 0.140582, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044017, "annualized_volatility": 0.310511, "from_high_reference": -0.067357, "from_low_reference": 0.289358 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.765362, "fair_value_reference": 11.983189, "structural_low": 13.960435, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.009302, "positive_rate": 0.52, "directional_follow_through": 0.52, "median_excess_return": 0.001031, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.400922, "worst_return": -0.08284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.018869, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.022139, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.407202, "worst_return": -0.118982, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008197, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.019385, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.501857, "worst_return": -0.040792, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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1058300, "typical_volume": 743905.0, "trend": 15.357719, "fair_value": 11.769037, "relative_strength": 4.133192, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 97.141386, "energy": 97.091001, "activity_lines": [ 16.993333, 16.341818, 15.871001, 15.643051 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.0, "volume": 95700, "typical_volume": 743300.0, "trend": 15.460714, "fair_value": 11.823764, "relative_strength": -2.709758, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.086505, "energy": 93.907521, "activity_lines": [ 17.466667, 16.714545, 16.098167, 15.813521 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 17.700001, "volume": 53000, "typical_volume": 721760.0, "trend": 15.563207, "fair_value": 11.87684, "relative_strength": -4.38655, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.278696, "energy": 88.241128, "activity_lines": [ 17.7, 16.983637, 16.284762, 15.957991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.6, "volume": 33000, "typical_volume": 371415.0, "trend": 15.656035, "fair_value": 11.929544, "relative_strength": -3.634242, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.93755, "energy": 87.454467, "activity_lines": [ 17.793334, 17.194546, 16.448095, 16.089397 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.0, "volume": 25900, "typical_volume": 369180.0, "trend": 15.765362, "fair_value": 11.983189, "relative_strength": -0.646267, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.59858, "energy": 65.211498, "activity_lines": [ 17.906667, 17.436364, 16.639524, 16.24062 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }