{ "ticker": { "uuid": "459045ee-56b4-4f3b-b38a-1315d60a9fa7", "symbol": "ABG", "name": "Asbury Automotive Group Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 60.018, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 33.706, "architecture_energy": 50.935, "architecture_maturity": 8.042, "architecture_confidence": 52.577, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.62, "rotation_up": 66.82, "upward_expansion": 59.9, "deceleration": 22.85, "rotation_down": 17.65, "downward_expansion": 18.24 }, "activity_lines": [ 221.787333, 215.884182, 207.474762, 206.109763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 214.32, "trend_reference": 208.986333, "distance_from_trend": 0.025522, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 228.384551, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.061583, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.42179, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.048355, "excess_performance": -0.17398, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.025522, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.038961, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.061583, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0679, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.144218, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.084648, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.048355, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.139255, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1315903, "relative_activity": 1.035464, "balance": 2.139255, "dry_up": 1.094438, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080803, "annualized_volatility": 0.308598, "from_high_reference": -0.18626, "from_low_reference": 0.245974 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 208.986333, "fair_value_reference": 228.384551, "structural_low": 172.01, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.088868, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.071844, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.158359, "worst_return": -0.166959, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.025592, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.043616, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.298385, "worst_return": -0.106983, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.027316, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.066926, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.19185, "worst_return": -0.091833, "sufficient": false }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.068772, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.059517, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.086126, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.037743, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010531, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.053148, 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"volume": 1081144, "typical_volume": 1243260.15, "trend": 211.570667, "fair_value": 228.4375, "relative_strength": -14.697237, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 3.038425, "energy": 15.195967, "activity_lines": [ 206.039333, 200.251273, 198.768, 203.00172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 220.36, "volume": 1075208, "typical_volume": 1246348.3, "trend": 211.019333, "fair_value": 228.360513, "relative_strength": -9.538601, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 31.852502, "energy": 31.407118, "activity_lines": [ 211.551333, 204.587818, 200.816476, 203.568774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 225.24, "volume": 1208746, "typical_volume": 1254520.15, "trend": 210.478667, "fair_value": 228.394167, "relative_strength": -6.593211, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 36.112214, "energy": 50.425489, "activity_lines": [ 217.301333, 209.448545, 203.298381, 204.486237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 231.7, "volume": 1963543, "typical_volume": 1283234.85, "trend": 210.376667, "fair_value": 228.46, "relative_strength": -4.661047, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 48.756473, "energy": 63.221567, "activity_lines": [ 223.325333, 214.646182, 206.298095, 205.855355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 214.32, "volume": 1315903, "typical_volume": 1270834.55, "trend": 208.986333, "fair_value": 228.384551, "relative_strength": -14.42179, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.705911, "energy": 50.935233, "activity_lines": [ 221.787333, 215.884182, 207.474762, 206.109763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }