{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45915bf8-9349-49a8-8664-08a4ab8fc015", "symbol": "688517", "name": "JinGuan Electric Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.098, "architecture_energy": 71.191, "architecture_maturity": 15.398, "architecture_confidence": 85.069, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.87, "rotation_up": 9.97, "upward_expansion": 16.15, "deceleration": 37.76, "rotation_down": 71.27, "downward_expansion": 89.48 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.200667, 16.085818, 17.982468, 18.489945 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.58, "trend_reference": 18.71412, "distance_from_trend": -0.167474, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.717488, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.058605, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.159383, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.109714, "excess_performance": -0.06651, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.167474, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010457, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.058605, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.50899, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.101594, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.399977, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.109714, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.706894, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13861764, "relative_activity": 0.833169, "balance": 0.706894, "dry_up": 0.80627, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.154473, "annualized_volatility": 0.568395, "from_high_reference": -0.38124, "from_low_reference": 0.155786 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.71412, "fair_value_reference": 14.717488, "structural_low": 13.48, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.025541, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.025431, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.429392, "worst_return": -0.313307, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.0025, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.033626, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.475369, "worst_return": -0.139566, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.036066, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.066039, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.672112, "worst_return": -0.244497, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.621473, "energy": 29.672801, "activity_lines": [ 18.104, 19.418813, 19.968268, 19.576327 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 17.049999, "volume": 14173499, "typical_volume": 18978692.7, "trend": 18.82112, "fair_value": 14.820552, "relative_strength": -3.584453, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.573871, "energy": 40.053999, "activity_lines": [ 17.676666, 18.811655, 19.700917, 19.464083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 14.96, "volume": 13864383, "typical_volume": 18895794.65, "trend": 18.79012, "fair_value": 14.786198, "relative_strength": -10.127795, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.116801, "energy": 54.69982, "activity_lines": [ 16.750666, 17.899374, 19.238424, 19.214979 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 14.62, "volume": 13876557, "typical_volume": 18058186.8, "trend": 18.753453, "fair_value": 14.756249, "relative_strength": -13.191084, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.645332, "energy": 56.574937, "activity_lines": [ 15.887333, 17.077013, 18.760502, 18.945939 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.82, "volume": 12054197, "typical_volume": 17125405.65, "trend": 18.714453, "fair_value": 14.731497, "relative_strength": -12.277707, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.693078, "energy": 73.127009, "activity_lines": [ 15.376, 16.439176, 18.324199, 18.692167 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.58, "volume": 13861764, "typical_volume": 16637392.8, "trend": 18.71412, "fair_value": 14.717488, "relative_strength": -10.159383, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.09832, "energy": 71.190915, "activity_lines": [ 15.200667, 16.085818, 17.982468, 18.489945 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }