{ "ticker": { "uuid": "459281f8-5ec7-45fa-8a61-efd2844252f1", "symbol": "PAEM", "name": "Invesco MSCI Emerging Markets ESG Climate Paris Aligned UCITS ETF USD Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 69.006, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 27.722, "architecture_energy": 31.479, "architecture_maturity": 61.951, "architecture_confidence": 83.626, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.49, "rotation_up": 21.34, "upward_expansion": 56.73, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 38.21, "downward_expansion": 20.4 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.228533, 5.318618, 5.286664, 5.160458 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.191, "trend_reference": 5.00635, "distance_from_trend": 0.036883, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.808865, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.362873, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.778862, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.101188, "excess_performance": -0.069704, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.036883, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061972, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.362873, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076339, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.017789, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.153588, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.101188, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.682039, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.682039, "dry_up": 0.768006, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030793, "annualized_volatility": 0.218496, "from_high_reference": -0.071045, "from_low_reference": 0.51275 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.00635, "fair_value_reference": 3.808865, "structural_low": 4.3975, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.059499, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.025804, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.1244, "worst_return": 0.04227, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.134511, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.052907, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.259693, "worst_return": 0.009329, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.271445, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.107364, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.271445, "worst_return": 0.271445, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.045084, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.056314, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.046395, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.1244, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.046438, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 3.4315, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 3.4315, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 3.4315, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, 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"gate": "up", "direction": 66.575006, "energy": 72.695656, "activity_lines": [ 5.513333, 5.439582, 5.237762, 5.092308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.189, "volume": 64407, "typical_volume": 35876.05, "trend": 4.932267, "fair_value": 3.774503, "relative_strength": 2.564359, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.383933, "energy": 58.372235, "activity_lines": [ 5.420733, 5.404582, 5.251448, 5.110578 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.273, "volume": 309, "typical_volume": 35033.4, "trend": 4.961533, "fair_value": 3.786308, "relative_strength": 4.025948, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.508518, "energy": 41.930201, "activity_lines": [ 5.355667, 5.386018, 5.271621, 5.132561 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.191, "volume": 47403, "typical_volume": 37381.6, "trend": 4.988067, "fair_value": 3.797587, "relative_strength": 1.409261, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.20425, "energy": 26.845349, "activity_lines": [ 5.281733, 5.351764, 5.280631, 5.147366 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.191, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 36496.8, "trend": 5.00635, "fair_value": 3.808865, "relative_strength": -1.778862, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.722082, "energy": 31.479186, "activity_lines": [ 5.228533, 5.318618, 5.286664, 5.160458 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }