{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45934e6a-abed-4a49-8cb4-0f4f9d79437f", "symbol": "278540", "name": "KODEX MSCI Korea TR", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 71.971, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -11.744, "architecture_energy": 29.142, "architecture_maturity": 63.653, "architecture_confidence": 81.497, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.97, "rotation_up": 14.04, "upward_expansion": 42.95, "deceleration": 87.89, "rotation_down": 53.54, "downward_expansion": 39.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 37229.0, 40804.818182, 41654.190476, 39361.83871 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34715.0, "trend_reference": 35905.666667, "distance_from_trend": -0.033161, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 17392.852564, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.995935, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.889941, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.331352, "excess_performance": 0.101523, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.033161, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.274335, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.995935, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.76949, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.078899, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046092, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.331352, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.070034, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 232077, "relative_activity": 0.361633, "balance": 1.070034, "dry_up": 0.862873, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.156261, "annualized_volatility": 0.530649, "from_high_reference": -0.363028, "from_low_reference": 1.484079 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 35905.666667, "fair_value_reference": 17392.852564, "structural_low": 25960.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.074004, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.017423, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.320214, "worst_return": -0.026125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.080512, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.020765, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.384354, "worst_return": 0.004823, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.077106, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.022559, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.102467, "worst_return": 0.051746, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-04-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022259, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-03", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.038987, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.084034, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0761, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.0414, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.038344, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.258259, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.061548, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.134359, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073649, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11205.0, "volume": 192994, "typical_volume": 355620.85, "trend": 11218.166667, "fair_value": 11728.685897, "relative_strength": 2.070135, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established 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"up", "direction": 12.651965, "energy": 24.601596, "activity_lines": [ 39231.666667, 42604.090909, 42112.97619, 39414.290323 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34715.0, "volume": 232077, "typical_volume": 641747.0, "trend": 35905.666667, "fair_value": 17392.852564, "relative_strength": 7.889941, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.74409, "energy": 29.141625, "activity_lines": [ 37229.0, 40804.818182, 41654.190476, 39361.83871 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }