{ "ticker": { "uuid": "459687b2-7409-4d82-aa26-d571c3d84d16", "symbol": "OVZON", "name": "Ovzon AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.255, "architecture_energy": 78.697, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.515, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.57, "rotation_up": 11.26, "upward_expansion": 18.93, "deceleration": 37.84, "rotation_down": 74.84, "downward_expansion": 94.6 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.465333, 40.912545, 47.398762, 50.103957 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 38.48, "trend_reference": 52.568, "distance_from_trend": -0.267996, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.223607, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.363398, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.501274, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.22963, "excess_performance": -0.291124, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.267996, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056679, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.363398, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.762361, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.245013, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.397794, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.22963, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.881405, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2162341, "relative_activity": 1.043982, "balance": 0.881405, "dry_up": 0.963099, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.159503, "annualized_volatility": 0.659266, "from_high_reference": -0.448315, "from_low_reference": 0.295623 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 52.568, "fair_value_reference": 28.223607, "structural_low": 35.619999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.024277, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.466667, "median_excess_return": 0.021481, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.717129, "worst_return": -0.633005, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.039627, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.363636, "median_excess_return": 0.029097, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.702454, "worst_return": -0.642581, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.05314, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.018038, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.578959, "worst_return": -0.783745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166453, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.165644, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070064, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.256881, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", 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"typical_volume": 2376588.8, "trend": 52.931666, "fair_value": 27.860117, "relative_strength": -21.136654, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.844201, "energy": 74.248915, "activity_lines": [ 41.664, 47.342, 51.751952, 52.982602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.959999, "volume": 1591170, "typical_volume": 2276395.8, "trend": 52.888666, "fair_value": 27.980889, "relative_strength": -23.754135, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.79709, "energy": 84.692861, "activity_lines": [ 40.124, 44.858363, 50.200286, 52.016688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.5, "volume": 1551892, "typical_volume": 2177525.25, "trend": 52.738666, "fair_value": 28.102402, "relative_strength": -25.316727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.751964, "energy": 84.220345, "activity_lines": [ 38.977333, 42.537273, 48.696905, 51.023871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.48, "volume": 2162341, "typical_volume": 2071244.35, "trend": 52.568, "fair_value": 28.223607, "relative_strength": -24.501274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.254605, "energy": 78.696818, "activity_lines": [ 38.465333, 40.912545, 47.398762, 50.103957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }