{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45977877-3809-4d96-9de0-f5e143a71a72", "symbol": "2525", "name": "NZAM ETF Nikkei 225", "exchange": "JPX", "country": "JP", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^N225", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 95.422, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.564, "architecture_energy": 26.728, "architecture_maturity": 65.911, "architecture_confidence": 80.145, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 43.88, "rotation_up": 22.35, "upward_expansion": 56.27, "deceleration": 91.17, "rotation_down": 33.86, "downward_expansion": 19.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 65869.333333, 67210.909091, 66246.857143, 64034.319178 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 66440.0, "trend_reference": 61156.689193, "distance_from_trend": 0.08639, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42877.063164, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.549546, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.615313, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.216738, "excess_performance": 0.00748, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08639, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104472, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.549546, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041008, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.006153, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002601, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.216738, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.372797, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22237, "relative_activity": 1.208523, "balance": 0.372797, "dry_up": 1.852132, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.052853, "annualized_volatility": 0.245456, "from_high_reference": -0.109383, "from_low_reference": 0.589895 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 61156.689193, "fair_value_reference": 42877.063164, "structural_low": 50970.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.016525, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.001679, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.124395, "worst_return": -0.03866, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.001807, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.000427, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.307635, "worst_return": -0.072699, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.044923, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.006812, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146913, "worst_return": -0.067746, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"fair_value": 42432.869604, "relative_strength": 0.359579, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.45556, "energy": 34.513285, "activity_lines": [ 67047.333333, 67973.272727, 65734.809524, 63340.806704 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65190.0, "volume": 30392, "typical_volume": 17884.8, "trend": 60682.316537, "fair_value": 42651.92985, "relative_strength": 0.659261, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.872371, "energy": 26.288615, "activity_lines": [ 66064.666667, 67488.545455, 65957.809524, 63662.855729 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66440.0, "volume": 22237, "typical_volume": 18400.15, "trend": 61156.689193, "fair_value": 42877.063164, "relative_strength": 0.615313, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.56439, "energy": 26.72816, "activity_lines": [ 65869.333333, 67210.909091, 66246.857143, 64034.319178 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }