{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45a1909a-015e-4210-903e-68bd921a8c84", "symbol": "300255", "name": "Hebei Changshan Biochemical Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.243, "architecture_energy": 47.675, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 77.778, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.02, "rotation_up": 28.1, "upward_expansion": 12.72, "deceleration": 60.97, "rotation_down": 44.72, "downward_expansion": 74.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 27.066667, 27.119091, 31.565619, 34.668581 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 28.110001, "trend_reference": 39.633, "distance_from_trend": -0.290743, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 26.529615, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.059571, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -41.165773, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.492508, "excess_performance": -0.499907, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.290743, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.220922, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.059571, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.833824, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.411658, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.192251, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.492508, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.065631, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 232741327, "relative_activity": 1.67636, "balance": 1.065631, "dry_up": 2.164526, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.179515, "annualized_volatility": 0.813336, "from_high_reference": -0.608004, "from_low_reference": 0.326569 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 39.633, "fair_value_reference": 26.529615, "structural_low": 21.190001, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.004232, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": -0.002594, "regime_survival": 0.84, "best_return": 2.745495, "worst_return": -0.364553, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.019576, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.008813, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 1.25, "worst_return": -0.408301, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.494215, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.40774, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.401258, "worst_return": -0.151361, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"green", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.307597, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.31064, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.664967, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.199049, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078378, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.070033, "active": 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"fair_value": 26.121795, "relative_strength": -32.924268, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.482379, "energy": 71.476588, "activity_lines": [ 27.437333, 29.918, 34.502667, 37.752602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.25, "volume": 329132600, "typical_volume": 126772473.7, "trend": 42.044333, "fair_value": 26.251923, "relative_strength": -46.277244, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.025031, "energy": 60.643561, "activity_lines": [ 27.049333, 28.532182, 33.359286, 36.587312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.959999, "volume": 190105314, "typical_volume": 132357884.1, "trend": 40.766, "fair_value": 26.380705, "relative_strength": -45.526351, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.310018, "energy": 56.877953, "activity_lines": [ 26.604666, 27.396363, 32.272333, 35.485097 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 28.110001, "volume": 232741327, "typical_volume": 138837337.8, "trend": 39.633, "fair_value": 26.529615, "relative_strength": -41.165773, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.243312, "energy": 47.675064, "activity_lines": [ 27.066667, 27.119091, 31.565619, 34.668581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }