{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45bbb5eb-137e-4681-8a1d-b313316b544d", "symbol": "UR3", "name": "United Rentals, Inc.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 79.139, "architecture_energy": 67.018, "architecture_maturity": 82.685, "architecture_confidence": 86.442, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.92, "rotation_up": 57.36, "upward_expansion": 85.33, "deceleration": 68.67, "rotation_down": 27.76, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 973.37333, 962.549087, 896.039048, 841.721568 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1010.0, "trend_reference": 790.384292, "distance_from_trend": 0.277859, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 433.331476, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.330779, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 40.86266, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.353483, "excess_performance": 0.288843, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.277859, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.112805, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.330779, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.562869, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.408627, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.11006, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.353483, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.432836, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 78, "relative_activity": 1.854935, "balance": 4.432836, "dry_up": 0.862069, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.055956, "annualized_volatility": 0.392566, "from_high_reference": -0.003945, "from_low_reference": 2.186777 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 790.384292, "fair_value_reference": 433.331476, "structural_low": 607.400024, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.014141, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.003515, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 1.269031, "worst_return": -0.03445, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.579495, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.145636, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.272683, "worst_return": -0.113693, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 1.014296, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.174031, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.014296, "worst_return": 1.014296, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-07-22", "end": "2022-08-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.154185, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2022-08-12", "end": "2022-09-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2022-09-16", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.406806, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.125955, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": 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862.919048, 816.952341 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 933.6, "volume": 58, "typical_volume": 40.95, "trend": 783.586447, "fair_value": 428.888749, "relative_strength": 36.141237, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.073367, "energy": 63.355262, "activity_lines": [ 955.386662, 949.349087, 876.54381, 827.114242 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1010.0, "volume": 78, "typical_volume": 42.05, "trend": 790.384292, "fair_value": 433.331476, "relative_strength": 40.86266, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.139275, "energy": 67.018335, "activity_lines": [ 973.37333, 962.549087, 896.039048, 841.721568 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }