{ "ticker": { "uuid": "45c4e0a1-4e7f-4316-8998-b068e20d5ceb", "symbol": "HPQ", "name": "HP Inc.", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.41, "architecture_energy": 88.076, "architecture_maturity": 24.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.731, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.27, "rotation_up": 81.05, "upward_expansion": 95.51, "deceleration": 42.37, "rotation_down": 10.43, "downward_expansion": 19.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 23.490667, 22.303834, 21.180715, 20.021114 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 25.190001, "trend_reference": 18.651372, "distance_from_trend": 0.350571, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.898383, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.054046, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.546515, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.532672, "excess_performance": 0.358425, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.350571, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031768, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.054046, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.299686, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.025465, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.254267, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.532672, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.128419, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2955, "relative_activity": 2.052012, "balance": 2.128419, "dry_up": 1.505503, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069278, "annualized_volatility": 0.453649, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.770077 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.651372, "fair_value_reference": 23.898383, "structural_low": 14.231016, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.005346, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.01115, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.220391, "worst_return": -0.135445, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.031543, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.023886, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.197301, "worst_return": -0.093828, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.044622, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.101485, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.106157, "worst_return": -0.343387, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.10984, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.089692, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.121599, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.074167, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.022314, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": 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"date": "2026-07-10", "close": 21.610001, "volume": 4330, "typical_volume": 1736.45, "trend": 18.065065, "fair_value": 23.977911, "relative_strength": -11.50577, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.461759, "energy": 35.449901, "activity_lines": [ 20.482, 20.766435, 19.558982, 18.735101 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 21.469999, "volume": 1842, "typical_volume": 1227.3, "trend": 18.131994, "fair_value": 23.949154, "relative_strength": -9.873837, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.338342, "energy": 36.820918, "activity_lines": [ 20.772333, 20.934472, 19.844185, 18.954774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 22.620001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1201.55, "trend": 18.24622, "fair_value": 23.92465, "relative_strength": -5.879358, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.756009, "energy": 53.562817, "activity_lines": [ 21.470667, 21.253428, 20.211152, 19.244323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 23.5, "volume": 3875, "typical_volume": 1292.3, "trend": 18.403519, "fair_value": 23.907545, "relative_strength": -1.807841, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.57205, "energy": 73.382119, "activity_lines": [ 22.315, 21.641468, 20.632029, 19.583276 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.190001, "volume": 2955, "typical_volume": 1440.05, "trend": 18.651372, "fair_value": 23.898383, "relative_strength": 2.546515, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.409917, "energy": 88.076323, "activity_lines": [ 23.490667, 22.303834, 21.180715, 20.021114 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }